Vegas Releases Surprising Penn State Football 2026 Projected Wins Total

An experienced roster and friendly schedule give the Nittany Lions a solid outlook for 2026.

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell is introduced during a press conference at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

It's never too early to debate the college football season, and Penn State will be among the Big Ten's most-discussed teams next season. Matt Campbell hasn't even begun his first spring practice yet is receiving strong reviews for his offseason changes to the Penn State football culture in a short period.

But can Campbell win games at Penn State? Oddsmakers give him a pretty good chance in his first season. FanDuel recently released its projected regular-season wins totals for the 2026 season, setting Penn State's number at 9.5. That's a strong over/under number considering Penn State is coming off a 3-6 Big Ten season, largely replaced its coaching staff and added 55 new players to the roster.

Surprisingly, Penn State is tied for third among Big Ten teams for the highest projected wins total. Defending national champ Indiana and playoff semifinalist Oregon top the list at 10.5. Penn State is tied with Ohio State at 9.5. Michigan, which has a new coach in Kyle Whittingham, and USC are at 8.5.

That shows a healthy respect for Campbell, who spent his first two months on the job building a roster. Campbell brought in 40 players from the NCAA Transfer Portal, including 24 from his former roster at Iowa State. He also retained 52 players from Penn State's 2025 team that finished the season 4-3 under interim head coach Terry Smith and with a win over Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Is 9.5 the right number for Penn State?

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Quinton Martin (25) is tackled by Clemson Tigers linebacker Sammy Brown (47) during the second half of the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

A 9.5 regular-season wins total seems aggressive for a coach who largely has shifted his system from Iowa State to Penn State, particularly on offense. Campbell brought his offensive coordinator (Taylor Mouser), offensive line coach, quarterbacks coach and much of his Cyclones starting offense to Penn State.

Quarterback Rocco Becht leads the group. A fourth-year starter who is college football's winningest returning quarterback, Becht quickly has become the offensive centerpiece in State College. He also chatted with former Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy about his next steps with the Penn State program.

Becht has run Campbell and Mouser's offense for three years, understands it intuitively and brought some of his favorite targets with him to Penn State. That includes tight end Benjamim Brahmer, receivers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen and running back Carson Hansen.

Though Becht continues to rehab from offseason shoulder surgery, he has taken the offense's mantle at Penn State and is precisely who Campbell wants running it.

"He already speaks the language," ESPN's Greg McElroy said on his Always College Football show. "He knows what Matt Campbell wants, he knows the calculus of what they're going to try to implement offensively. ... In a season where so many teams are trying to integrate a mercenary quarterback from the portal, Penn State has a starter who's been in the system a really long time. That continuity by itself is worth a couple wins."

Penn State also isn't talking about this season being a rebuild. Campbell retained a core group Nittany Lions, notably linebacker Tony Rojas, tight end Andrew Rappleyea and most of Smith's cornerbacks room. Smith, who returned as associate head coach, even invoked how Curt Cignetti turned Indiana into a national champion in two years through the portal.

"I think we were able to keep the core group of guys that we don't have to start from square one," Smith said. "Then the blended family that came from Iowa State, I think it's a perfect match. To be honest, it's almost like Curt Cignetti, when he brought the JMU guys to Indiana. We brought a great group of guys from Iowa State who have blended with our current Penn State guys."

Then there's the schedule. Penn State has what might be the Big Ten's friendliest schedule in 2026. The Nittany Lions do not play Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Illinois or Iowa, all of which have regular-season wins projections of 7.5 or better.

Penn State's nine Big Ten opponents went a combined 33-48 in conference play last season. Of the six Big Ten teams that didn't play in a bowl game, four are on the Nittany Lions' schedule. And while Ohio State visits Texas for a non-conference game, Penn State will play a de facto home game against Temple at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field.

No wonder that FOX Sports' Joel Klatt said that Penn State hit the "scheduling jackpot."

"If you would have known this schedule before this hiring process, guys would have clamored to take the [job.]"

More from @joelklatt on who he feels won the schedule lottery in the Big Ten. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/W9UthECEJd

— The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football on FOX Pod (@JoelKlattShow) February 2, 2026

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