Why You Shouldn't Be Concerned About Penn State's Start — and Why You Should

The No. 2 Nittany Lions have a long way to go until the playoff, but it's never too early for fans to worry.

Penn State head coach James Franklin, center, in the first half of an NCAA football game against Nevada. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two weeks into the season, Penn State has played just enough football for fans to catch a glimpse of the good and the bad that this team might bring to the table. Of course, the season is long, and what a team does in September is rarely what it does in December. That said, here are five reasons to believe in Penn State’s title chances — and five reasons to worry.

Five reasons to believe in Penn State

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) throws a pass during the third quarter against the FIU Panthers at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Oregon inflation: Nobody is questioning that the Ducks are good. But as everyone knows, early season rankings are, to some degree, arbitrary. A win over Oklahoma State carries more water than anything Penn State has done so far, or will do in the first three weeks, but Oregon running over vastly inferior teams doesn’t come as a shock or really prove anything. Penn State’s upcoming clash with the Ducks won’t determine the season, but it sure will set the tone. If you want some early optimism, it might be found in the belief that maybe Oregon’s trip to Beaver Stadium won’t go well. And sometimes one big win is all you need.

Proof of concept: Whatever relatively minor issues you might have with Penn State right now, there’s nothing that would lead you to believe Penn State isn’t a contender. Sure, the Oregon game is a pretty high-profile benchmark, but aside from Ohio State there aren’t many, if any, games on the schedule that should bring you a ton of pause. Penn State will look like a different team by December, and if it has 10 wins, it will probably make the playoffs. Once that happens, Week 2 red flags won’t matter anymore.

It’s early: If you want to put FIU in the pile of games Penn State won against a worse out-of-conference team but didn’t impress while doing it, consider the pile: Bowling Green 2024, Central Michigan 2022, Villanova 2021, App State 2018, Kent State 2016. While not all seasons are created equal, none of those performances was really indicative of anything other than rust. And sure, you can argue that some of these seasons weren’t among Penn State’s best, but for every 2018 there’s a 2024.

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen runs with the ball down the sideline for a touchdown against the FIU Panthers at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

It’s early, part 2: Penn State has three new wide receivers in the starting rotation, a new defensive coordinator and an offensive coordinator in his second year and has played 120 minutes of actual football. Go ahead and raise your eyebrows at some early bumps in the road, but also remember that pretty much every team, ever, has gotten better. Let alone teams with plenty of new pieces.

It’s early, part 3: College football is a game of bounces. Teams get hot, teams get lucky, teams get hurt, teams don’t live up to expectations. Penn State will deal with some portion of that list this season and will see other teams face challenges as well. Penn State was never really in the Big Ten title mix last season until it suddenly found itself playing in Indy. You just never know, and the season has far more days to go than days gone by. Maybe this isn’t something Penn State can control, but it’s part of the game all the same.

🚨 Penn State Offensive Film Breakdown 🚨

It’s not all bad.

The plays are there — the execution just hasn’t been.

Here’s what the tape shows ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Lt2XbwoRuK

— Adam Breneman (@AdamBreneman81) September 10, 2025

Five reasons to worry about Penn State

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin talks with quarterback Drew Allar during the first quarter against the Nevada Wolf Pack at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Drew Allar slumps: James Franklin leaned into the notion that quarterbacks have to learn to flush the mistakes and not get into a rut, noting that Allar was fighting off the feeling against FIU at times. Sure, everyone has bad days at the office, but if Penn State is going to get to where it wants to go with Allar, he’s going to need to just let it rip and not think so much. This isn’t saying Allar needs to throw it deep, but if he plays in big games with 10 percent less self-inflicted pressure, he might play 10 percent better. Easy to say from the couch, but if there’s a reason to worry, it might be the notion that Allar doesn’t quite take the next step between the ears.

Third down: Stats after just two games are hardly a trend, but Penn State does find itself 93rd nationally in third-down conversion rate. The Nittany Lions finished 19th in the nation last year and will almost certainly improve from 93rd, but if moving the chains turns into a chore, big wins are unlikely to follow.

Red-zone TD rate: Penn State has scored on 100 percent of its red-zone possessions but touchdowns on just 54.6 percent of them — also 93rd in the country. Much like third down, this value will likely increase, but red-zone problems can become systemic. You don’t win games with field goals, at least not in 2025 or early 2026.

Trench woes: Like most things two weeks into the season, it’s a bit early to wave a red flag, but Penn State’s offensive line hasn’t hit its stride yet. Will it happen? Franklin seems to think so, saying this group could be the best he’s had at Penn State. But it also might fall short. There are lots of reasons teams don’t win titles, but a good offensive line is almost always one of the reasons teams do win them.

Not ready in time: There’s a world where Oregon does what Oregon does and Penn State gets smacked pretty good in two weeks. In that world, a loss takes the wind out of the Nittany Lions’ sails and, somewhere in the mix of things, a third loss shows up on the record after losing to Ohio State in Columbus. This team might be too good to fall off the tracks, but it wouldn’t be the first time this program has seen preseason hopes come up short. A lopsided loss to Oregon — especially as the defense finds itself under coordinator Jim Knowles — could be a tough blow to absorb. Especially if Franklin is feeling heat from the fans.

Penn State football coach James Franklin, center, looks up during the first half against the Nevada Wolf Pack at Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images