How Penn State Hockey Can Get Back on Track for the Postseason

The sixth-ranked Penn State men’s hockey team has been piling up losses on the ice and the depth chart the past few weeks.

The Nittany Lions went 0-3-1 in their last four games against No. 1 Michigan State and No. 2 Michigan, while their captain Dane Dowiak and most talented center Charlie Cerrato sustained long-term injuries over the past month.

With six games remaining in the regular season, the Nittany Lions need to find some momentum if they want to repeat their Frozen Four run of last year. Here’s the outlook for Penn State and how it can get back on track, starting with this weekend’s series against Ohio State.

Injuries have been a burden for Penn State

Penn State Nittany Lions forward Dane Dowiak scores a goal against the Clarkson Golden Knights. — Penn State Nittany Lions forward Dane Dowiak (19) scores a goal in the second period of a game against Clarkson Golden Knights goaltender Shane Soderwall (30) at Pegula Ice Arena. | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Nittany Lions started defensemen Casey Aman and Nick Fascia at right wing in Saturday’s series finale against the Wolverines, but not by choice. Dowiak became the fifth Penn State forward to be sidelined due to injury, which handicapped an already thin group.

Of the five injured Nittany Lions, Dowiak, center Keaton Peters and winger Alex Servagno are all out for the remainder of the regular season. To make matters worse, coach Guy Gadowsky said Tuesday that winger Braedon Ford, who’s been hurt since the January 9-10 series against Minnesota, will miss a “significant amount of time.”

However, Gadowsky said in January that the team is hopeful Cerrato could return for the playoffs, which would be a massive boost to Penn State both offensively and defensively.

Where Penn State stands in the postseason race

Penn State Nittany Lions forward Dane Dowiak passes the puck during a Big Ten ice hockey game against Michigan State. — Penn State Nittany Lions forward Dane Dowiak (19) passes the puck during a Big Ten ice hockey game against Michigan State in Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State is a significant 10 points behind top-seeded Michigan with two games in hand in the Big Ten standings. It will be a tough climb for the Nittany Lions to jump the Wolverines in the standings. However, a six-game win streak to end the regular season could make things interesting.

Michigan State, meanwhile, holds a six-point edge on Penn State for the No. 2 seed in the conference, which is much more feasible gap for the Nittany Lions to close. Penn State is the current Big Ten third seed and holds just a three-point advantage over Wisconsin, though it has two games in hand.

After the Nittany Lions swept Wisconsin in January, they were a near lock to hold a top-three seed for the Big Ten Tournament. However, a rough two-week patch for Penn State brought the Badgers within striking distance.

What Penn State must do to get back on track

Penn State Nittany Lions ice hockey players enter Beaver Stadium for a Big Ten ice hockey game against Michigan State. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State’s offensive firepower has kept up with the top teams in the country despite the injuries. However, the Nittany Lions have lapsed defensively.

Penn State has given up 21 goals (5.25 per game) in its last four contests, despite rostering one of the best goaltenders in the nation in Josh Fleming. The Nittany Lions have allowed 11 of those 21 goals in his starts.

Fleming has masked Penn State’s defensive weaknesses against worse competition to date, but Michigan and Michigan State exploited their matchups. An abundance of power-play opportunities for the opposition has been a particular difference in the Nittany Lions’ losses this season.

Penn State is the most penalized team in the nation, averaging 20.86 minutes per game in the penalty box, three minutes more than the Spartans. That’s more than one-third of game time in regulation.

The man-advantage score for Michigan State was the difference in the Beaver Stadium outdoor game, and the two for the Wolverines were the difference in Game 1 of their series in Ann Arbor.

If Penn State doesn’t learn how to stay out of the box soon, that could cost the team a chance at the national championship.

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Could a goaltender role change help defensively?

Penn State Nittany Lions goalkeeper Josh Fleming stretches for the save against the Michigan State Spartans. | Robert Killips/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State has been running a goaltender tandem between Fleming and Kevin Reidler all season, despite a clear difference in production. Fleming, who was named a Hobey Baker Award nominee and the National Co-Rookie of the Month for January, has started in 13 games compared to Reidler’s 15.

In his split starts, the freshman owns the fourth-best save percentage (.934) in the country and is 15th in goals-against average (2.162). His save percentage is .27 points higher than Reidler’s, and his goals-against average is 0.9 points lower.

Additionally, Fleming is outperforming Reidler in every advanced statistic. He is beating Reidler in even-strength save percentage (.941-.917), shorthanded save percentage (.902-.894), close save percentage (.937-.913), expected save percentage (.904-.901), goals allowed against expected goals allowed (+12.8-+2.7) and high-danger save percentage (.887-.850).

Thus, naming Fleming the full-time starter might be the solution to improving the defense.

Up next

Penn State visits Ohio State (11-16-1) for a two-game series this weekend. Game 1 is scheduled for an 8:30 p.m. ET start on Friday. Game 2 starts at 8 p.m. Saturday. Both games will be broadcast on Big Ten Network.