Analytics Show Braden Smith is College Basketball's Best Player And It's Not Close
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Braden Smith has gone from an under-recruited three-star prospect in high school to the best player in college basketball. For those doubting his status atop the hoops mountain, one analytics website has tabbed the Purdue guard as the best player entering the 2025-26 season, and it's not particularly close.
Before the start of a new college basketball season, Evan Miyakawa, who created EvanMiya.com and the Bayesian Performance Ratings, released his list of the top 30 players for the 2025-26 campaign. Smith was a the top of the list, with a Bayesian Performance Rating of 11.14.
The second player on the list is Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg, who has a 9.37 overall rating.
The gap between Smith and Lendeborg is wider than the gap between Lendeborg and Iowa' State's Tamin Lipsey, who is listed at No. 19 on the list. That's an insane amount of separtation between the top two spots.
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax!
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) October 8, 2025
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile. pic.twitter.com/FLs5bYKwzU
The Bayesian Performance Ratings that Miyakawa created account for "statistical output, impact on team performance,, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile."
Speaking with Purdue Boilermakers on SI, Miyakawa said that the last player who had that much separation in his preseason Bayesian Performance Rating was Purdue center Zach Edey before the 2023-24 season.
What sets Smith apart from the rest of the field is his high grades in both Offensive and Defensive Bayesian Ratings. Most players on this list are incredibly productive on one end of the court, but struggle on the other.
Miyakawa says one of things he loves about Smith's game is the purpose with which he plays.
"I love watching him, he just seems like he's never rushed," Miyakawa said. "He's always evaluating what's happening and keeps making the right decision. He's in complete control, knows exactly what he's doing, and gets to his spot. Everything is purposeful."
Smith is the best all-around player in college basketball. It's no surprise that he was picked to be the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year and is one of the top candidates to win the National Player of the Year.
What is EvanMiya.com's Bayesian Performance Rating
It's easy to look at Smith's stats from last season and say he's one of the best players in college basketball. As a junior, the Purdue guard averaged 15.8 points, 8.7 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.2 steals per game. But the Bayesian Performance Rating dives even deeper into the details.
Miyakawa said that his rating system is "a metric created to be the best all-in-one metric for player performance on-court in college basketball." It looks at individual statistical contribution, but also evaluates every possession Smith is on the floor.
For those who may have forgotten, Smith averaged 37 minutes per game and played a full 40 minutes in 13 games. So, there were a lot of possessions to evaluate.
Miyakawa explained that Smith's playmaking ability, as a distributor and as a scorer is second-to-none in college basketball. He is also incredibly effective on the defensive end.
"Braden is not just a 20 points-per-game scorer, he's also very valuable on defensive end, Miyakawa said. He can force turnovers and can grab rebounds. That sticks out a lot on the defensive end.
"He has an A+ grade in playmaking ... he has the best predicted assist rate in the country at 41% this year. Plus, he can score on his own. He's one of the elite three-point shooters in college basketball. He's predicted to shoot 39.6% from three. Someone who has the ball in their hands that much, it's really rare to be such an effective three-point shooter."
Last year, Smith was the Big Ten Player of the Year, a first-team All-American, and the winner of the Bob Cousy Award. He has an excellent chance of adding National Player of the Year to his lengthy list of accolades.
Related stories on Purdue basketball
- BRADEN SMITH BEST GUARD MATCHUPS: Braden Smith is one of the best point guards in college basketball. What are some great matchups the Purdue guard will encounter during the 2025-26 season? CLICK HERE
- PAINTER NOT CHANGING RECRUITING PHILOSOPHY: Purdue's recent success opens the program up to landing better recruits. But Matt Painter says he doesn't want "better players," he wants the "same people." CLICK HERE
- BRADEN SMITH'S RIDICULOUS PASS: Braden Smith dished out a ridiculous behind-the-back pass for an easy Oscar Cluff dunk at Purdue's Fan Day on Saturday. Fans went wild over the insane play. CLICK HERE
Dustin Schutte is the publisher of Purdue Boilermakers on SI and has spent more than a decade working in sports journalism. His career began in 2013, when he covered Big Ten football. He remained in that role for eight years before working at On SI to cover the Boilermakers. Dustin graduated from Manchester University in Indiana in 2010, where he played for the men's tennis team.
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