Reasons why SMU Football wins the ACC and goes to the CFP in 2026

SMU is a prime candidate to win the conference title and return to the College Football Playoff.

Here’s why the Mustangs have the firepower to win the ACC and the specific path that gets them back in the CFP.

SMU has the best QB continuity in the conference. Kevin Jennings is one of the more veteran and tested dual-threat quarterbacks in the ACC, and SMU is one of more than half the teams starting a new signal-caller. Jennings has accounted for better than 6,800 yards and nearly 50 touchdowns over the past two seasons and has been a consistent threat with his legs.

Jennings is heading into his third year as the full-time starter in head coach Rhett Lashlee’s high-octane offense, and he gives SMU a massive tactical advantage late in close games.

While SMU’s skill positions get the headlines, the line sets the tone for the offense. Jennings will have more time to run, too, with All-ACC tackle PJ Williams and other key starting offensive linemen back to help a running game that’s built to wear down ACC opponents.

SMU already knows how to beat top-tier ACC competition, beating Miami in 2025 and making the 12-team playoff field in 2024. After minor defensive setbacks in 2025, Lashlee retooled the secondary and defensive line with high-upside Power Four talent, leveraging SMU’s strong NIL support and the transfer portal.

A friendly ACC schedule is one of their biggest advantages. SMU, in the conference title race, has teams they don’t face in the regular season. The Mustangs do not play Miami or Clemson in conference play. To a lesser extent, they also avoid playing Pitt and Georgia Tech, who are projected by ESPN to be No. 41 and No. 43 in their national preseason projections. Their conference home games are against Boston College, Virginia, Cal, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. Their road games are more difficult, playing at Florida State and Notre Dame as well as going on the road to face Louisville, Syracuse, and Stanford.

As mentioned, they need to get past some early road challenges, like the season opener at Florida State, if they want to be in a strong position to win the ACC conference this year. In week three, they visit Louisville, which ESPN projects as the No. 27 SP+ team in its preseason projections. The goal is winning or sweeping these early road tests, which gives SMU instant momentum and control of their destiny in conference play before heading into the middle stretch of the season. The Mustangs' offense and improved defense should result in wins for SMU.

They are responsible for taking care of business and not slipping up like last season in their mid-season conference slate of games to win the ACC title this season. They need to fix the small late-game mistakes that cost them games in 2025, when all four losses came in the final minutes or overtime. They lost in double overtime to Baylor and lost on the road to Wake Forest and Cal by a combined four points. The only game they lost last year by more than three points was on the road to TCU, where they trailed by just four in the fourth quarter. The encouraging news is they could learn from those games so that they can win close games against similar opponents this season. The Mustangs should win close games this season, unlike last.

SMU does have a lighter middle-of-the-schedule workload against the likes of Syracuse, Stanford, and Cal, but they must avoid trap games and keep their ACC schedule clean. Great teams find ways to be consistent and win close games, especially on the road, and the Mustangs seek to win 11 games this season by not losing games that they are favorite in.

If SMU were to win the ACC regular season title, it would secure a spot in the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium, having won all or nearly all of its regular-season ACC games. A win over a team like Miami or Clemson in the conference championship would earn them an automatic berth and likely a top-four bye in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

If SMU stumbles in a tight ACC championship game, a 10-2 or 11-1 regular season (particularly with a strong non-conference showcase against Notre Dame) keeps them in the conversation for an at-large CFP bid.

With all that being said, SMU should go 11-1, win the ACC, and get an automatic berth to the CFP. There are variables, and nothing is guaranteed, but this seems to be the season the Mustangs accomplish their goals and more, like in 2024.

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