Reasons why SMU will Defeat Miami of Ohio in the NCAA Tournament

SMU is the favorite heading into this game, but the RedHawks are a trendy pick to upset the Mustangs in one of the First Four games of the NCAA Tournament.

Southern Methodist University Mustangs guard Jaron Pierre Jr. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

These ten factors increase the likelihood that SMU will prevail over Miami of Ohio.

1. SMU fought its way through the ACC throughout the entire season; thanks to the strength of its schedule and its familiarity with "Quad 1" and other teams, they are ready to take on the RedHawks.
One of the best conferences in the country this season was the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). Although they only competed against weaker non-conference and MAC teams, the Miami (Ohio) Hurricanes recorded a remarkable record of 31-1. The games that SMU played against teams that were ranked in the top 25, such as Duke and North Carolina, helped them get ready for high-stakes tournament basketball in a way that Miami's schedule was unable to do.

2. "Boopie" Miller scoring 25 or more points.

The best player on the Mustangs is Kevin "Boopie" Miller, who is a senior guard who runs the SMU offense. Miller has been selected to the All-ACC Second Team and is also on the watch list for the Oscar Robertson Trophy. When it comes to assists, he is ranked 15th in the country with 6.4 per game. Miller gives SMU a significant advantage in the backcourt because he can control the pace of the game and successfully make shots when they are needed. He recently put up 25 in a win against Syracuse, 27 in a victory against UNC, and 28 in a road win against Mississippi State. It is not automatic if he scores 25 or more points, the Mustangs win, as in evident in games against Florida State and Stanford when he put up 32 and 26 points, but it helps SMU's chances of winning.

3. The preeminence of Samet Yigitoglu inside against the RedHawks' big men.

Samet Yigitoglu, a sophomore center who stands 7 feet and two inches tall, is an especially difficult opponent for a Miami (Ohio) team that lacks tall players who play significant playing time. With 3.6 offensive rebounds per game, he is the player in the ACC who has grabbed the most offensive rebounds, and he is the seventh-best shot blocker this season. It's possible that his ability to maintain control of the ball and create opportunities for his teammates, if Miami of Ohio doubles him in the post, could be the deciding factor.

4. The three points scored by Jaron Pierre Jr. from the outside.

Jaron Pierre Jr., a senior guard, highlights the fact that SMU's offense has the potential to be outstanding in this tournament with guards who are seniors looking to make a run. In recent games, Pierre has been on a fantastic stretch, scoring 17 or more points in each of the last four games. SMU may be able to penetrate Miami of Ohio's defense if he is able to have success from deep, as he has made five or more three-pointers in four of the last five games.

5. The ability to play multiple defensive positions and make switches defensively on offensive screens.

Through the utilization of the Mustangs' height, head coach Andy Enfield has brought forth a more versatile defense for the team, especially this season. SMU's large number of wings, who are between 6'6" and 6'11", allows the team to switch between various positions. Because of these changes, it may be difficult for Miami's guards to come up with open shots off of on-ball screens, as Mustang players can simply switch as opposed to hedging screens and allowing RedHawk guards to get open shots.

6. Miami of Ohio's "MAC Tournament Disappointment" affects this game.

UMass shocked Miami (Ohio) by defeating them in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament, which dashed their hopes of being unbeaten throughout the entire regular season. However, their failure may have led them to question their abilities and, most importantly, lose confidence. SMU is playing in one of the First Four games of the tournament, and they should be confident going into this game against another 11-seeded team.

7. Both teams are rested, but SMU needed the rest more and is ready to play in this game.

The SMU team last played on March 11th, which means they have had a week to rest and prepare for this game. Mustang players like B.J. Edwards and Corey Washington, who are questionable for the game, should be ready to play against the RedHawks. SMU endured a lengthy series of ACC games, making the rest essential. For Miami of Ohio, which last played on March 13th, they had a little less rest, but they are roughly 50 miles away from Dayton, OH, so it evens out essentially.

Source: SMU star B.J. Edwards is set to return for SMU after missing the last five games and will be available for the NCAA Tournament. He hasn’t played since Feb. 25 with an ankle injury. He’s averaging 12.7 points and 4.9 assists per game. pic.twitter.com/XDeD0GpAC3

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) March 13, 2026

8. The percentages of the best shooters reside with SMU.

The Mustangs are not only quick, especially at the guard position, but they also perform well in their shooting efficiency. Among Division One teams, they have a field goal percentage of 49.0% and a three-point shot percentage of 37.4%, which places them in 24th place. Being able to convert at a high rate is essential for SMU to be successful in a tournament game, where every play counts.

9. The degree of depth and the impact that first-year players will have in this game

At SMU, there are a tremendous number of outstanding players, including freshmen who are highly respected, such as Jaden Toombs, who stands at 6 feet 10 inches, and Jermaine O'Neal Jr. SMU receives a significant boost in energy from these players whenever they come off the bench, even with players like B.J.
Davis-Ray, whose playing time is increasing. This strategy helps them keep their defense strong while preserving their starters, who are primarily upperclassmen. In contrast, many mid-majors must sacrifice star players' rest to achieve this.

10. How the "First Four" game benefits SMU.

Teams from major conferences that "slump" into the First Four have frequently taken advantage of the game in the past to get back on track and compete in the round of 64 of the tournament. If SMU can establish dominance in the paint early on, this game could serve as a significant victory for them. Miami of Ohio has never faced a team this athletic this season, and as UCLA did in 2021, the Mustangs are looking to make a run to the round of 16.

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