Ranking the likeliness and fit of Pac-12 expansion candidates

With expansion talks surfacing again some programs are better fits than others to join the Pac-12

It has been nearly a year since the college football world was blindsided by the news that USC and UCLA were leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten.

We had already seen Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC, but to say that anyone saw two schools from Los Angeles sign up to play conference games in New Jersey, Indiana, and Wisconsin was not anyone's bingo card. The Pac-12 still seems like they are waking up and recovering from the news, as at one point they had Big 12 programs pleading to let them join the conference and now the Big 12 looking to poach four of the Pac-12's programs after they expanded and secured a media rights deal. 

We know that the Pac-12 has looked into expansion, but obviously is prioritizing securing their media rights deal first. Something that has not been a walk in the park by any means. With certain deadlines looming, and the Big 12 ready to pounce those around the Pac-12 believe that the month of June will finally be the month something happens after months of missed deadlines.

This means we could be one month closer to the Pac-12 expanding, which is why I ranked the likeliness and fit of the handful of Pac-12 candidates that have either been connected to the Pac-12 or are ones that I think make the most sense.

Rice

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Fit: 5/10

Likeliness: 2/10

Rice checks the boxes when it comes to academics, and adding a school in the Houston market would give the Pac-12 major access to another large market television wise. It would also give Pac-12 teams more access to the state of Texas assuming that SMU gets the nod. However, the benefits stop there as Rice is historically not competitive, and if SMU isn't as much of a lock as most would think, that only worsens their chances. In February, CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd reported that they were not in the mix, which is why they get a two on the likeliness scale. 

Tulane

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Fit: 7/10 

Likeliness: 5.5/10 

Similar to Rice, Tulane checks the academic requirements box and is actually one of the top-50 universities in the country. On the field the program is clearly trending upward after this past season we saw them knock off future Big Ten member USC in the Cotton Bowl. They became extremely good and nationally relevant at the right time, similar to that of former American foe, Cincinnati. Unlike the Bearcats who have the No. 36 television market in the country, New Orleans has the No. 50 market. If the Pac-12 were to expand east and add both the Texas schools, Tulane would make a ton of sense as well. However, if it is not in the interests of the Pac-12 to have a team from Oregon travel to New Orleans, that also wouldn't be surprising. Adding Tulane would require the Pac-12 to want to expand across the country further, and I just don't think that is something a conference who has been playing defense all year will do. 

Colorado State

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Fit: 7.5

Likeliness: 6.5

In terms of market, the Pac-12 already has a program residing in the state, but obviously they make the most sense geographically. How much that is worth in this modern day of college football, is hard to tell. Colorado State has been decent in basketball making three tournament appearances since 2012, and did have a stretch of solid years in football. They are far less exciting than adding a program like Tulane in terms of their location and recruiting ground, but if the Pac-12 is worried about expanding too far away that makes a major case for them. 

SMU

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Fit: 8

Likeliness: 7.5

There is not nearly as much of a consensus in Pac-12 circles when it comes to adding SMU. They have already been in discussions and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff even took a trip out to Dallas during basketball season. However, there appears to be a sense of hesitancy to expand all the way to Texas despite SMU being one of the best few remaining options. The thought process all along was that it was SMU and San Diego State were the two locks, and anything after them was a bonus. That hasn't really been the same feeling as of late, which is why they are bumped down to a 7.5 If the Pac-12 did SMU, adding Rice and Tulane makes that much more sense.

San Diego State

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Fit: 10 

Likeliness: 9

Immediately after the news broke about USC and UCLA, myself and people across the country instantly thought of San Diego State. We are nearly a year after that move, and San Diego State is still by far the best candidate. They give the Pac-12 access to the Southern California market again, and are also a very competitive program. San Diego State themselves have even acknowledged how perfect of a fit they are, but the biggest hold up for them is the Pac-12's media rights negotiations which if they go into July will force San Diego State to have to pay double of their exit fee to the Mountain West. This is the biggest no brainer possible, it all depends on the Pac-12 getting a deal done which feels like it has been trending in the wrong direction.