2025 Valero Texas Open Betting Models, Picks: Approach Play Key at TPC San Antonio

The Valero Texas Open will give players one last shot to punch their ticket to Augusta National.

The PGA Tour makes one final stop before heading to Augusta National for the Masters. / Soobum Im-Imagn Images

As players and fans gear up for the Masters, the PGA Tour stays in Texas following the Houston Open to play the Valero Texas Open. 

TPC San Antonio is a 7,494-yard par-72 and features Bermudagrass greens.  The main defense of the course is weather. The course can play pretty tough depending on the conditions.  If the wind stays dormant, expect the winner to be in the 20-under range.

There are 150 golfers in the field this week. The field is strong with players looking to round into form for the Masters. Some notable players in the field include Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Åberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, Max Homa and Daniel Berger. 

Past Winners at TPC San Antonio

• 2024: Akshay Bhatia (-20)
• 2023: Corey Conners (-15)
• 2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
• 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
• 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

Key Stats For TPC San Antonio

Let’s take a look at key metrics at TPC San Antonio to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

Strokes-gained approach is the best measure of current form. With plenty on the line this week, golfers will be looking to either punch a ticket to Augusta or round into great form heading into the Masters.

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds: 

1. Henrik Norlander (+1.22)
2. Jackson Suber (+0.91) 
3. Tom Kim (+0.81) 
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+0.77) 
5. Bud Cauley (+0.65) 

Strokes-gained off the tee

Strokes-gained off the tee is statistically more important at TPC San Antonio than most PGA Tour courses. Bhatia ranked sixth in strokes-gained off the tee last year. Hitting the ball long and straight will be a major factor this week.

Strokes-gained off the tee per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Rico Hoey (+0.96)
2. Isaiah Salinda (+0.75)
3. Keith Mitchell (+0.69) 
4. Taylor Moore (+0.57)
5. Aldrich Potgieter (+0.56)

Strokes-gained in Texas

Players who perform well in Texas typically play well at TPC San Antonio.

Strokes-gained in Texas per round over past 36 rounds:

1. Jordan Spieth (+1.97) 
2. Corey Conners (+1.85) 
3. Tony Finau (+1.69)
4. Justin Rose  (+1.58)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.52)

Strokes-gained putting on Poa Trivialis

While a hot putter is always tough to predict, it is still important to factor POA Trivialis putting into the stat model this week.

Strokes-gained putting on Poa Trivialis over past 36 rounds:

1. Jake Knapp (+1.03)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+0.93)
3. Denny McCarthy(+0.87)
4. Jacob Bridgeman (+0.85)
5. Sam Ryder (+0.84)

Strokes-gained approach on courses that have “hard” approach shots

TPC San Antonio will give players really difficult shots into the green complexes. This statistic will incorporate players who excel in those situations. 

Strokes-gained approach on courses that have “difficult” approach shots over past 36 rounds:

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.04)
2. Tony Finau (+0.85)
3. Daniel Berger (+0.81)
4. Matteo Manassero (+0.70)
5. Ben Martin (+0.69)

Comparable Course Rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For TPC San Antonio, I am using PGA National, Riviera, Colonial, Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Tony Finau
4. Jacob Bridgeman
5. K.H. Lee
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Cameron Young
8. Bud Cauley
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Tony Finau

Valero Texas Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (27%), strokes-gained total in Texas (13%), strokes-gained off the tee (20%), strokes-gained putting on Poa Trivialis (15%), strokes-gained approach on courses that have “difficult” approach shots (15%) and comparable courses (10%)

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Daniel Berger
3. Bud Cauley
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Keegan Bradley
6. Corey Conners 
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Victor Perez
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Keith Mitchell

Last week's picks results for the Texas Children’s Houston Open:

Tony Finau (40-1): T32
Min Woo Lee (40-1): WINNER
Jason Day (40-1): T27
Wyndham Clark (80-1: T5
Max Greyserman (75-1): MC
Davis Riley (190-1): T52
Emiliano Grillo (300-1): T47

2025 Valero Texas Open Picks

Jordan Spieth+2500 (DraftKings)

I backed Jordan Spieth a few weeks back at the Valspar Championship and I see no reason not to go back to him at one of his favorite courses on Tour.

At Innisbrook’s Copperhead course, the three-time major champion was excellent with his irons, gaining 7.76 strokes on approach, which was third in the field. Spieth struggled around the green (73rd) and with the putter (49th), which I believe is an anomaly. Prior to the Valspar, he gained strokes around the green in four consecutive starts. The putting has been hot and cold this season, but the 31-year-old has gained strokes putting in five of his last six trips to TPC San Antonio.

Over his past 36 rounds, Spieth ranks first in strokes-gained total in Texas. I believe he’s been very solid this year, but he is a different player in his home state. Spieth will be motivated and focused as he gears up for one of his other favorite events on the schedule that takes place at an obscure course called Augusta National.

I have a gut feeling Spieth will clinch the victory this week, stoking the Masters buzz to a fever pitch.

Keegan Bradley +2800 (ESPN BET)

Keegan Bradley has an encouraging combination of current form and course history heading into this week's Valero Texas Open. Over his past 24 rounds, the U.S. Ryder Cup captain ranks 11th in the field in strokes-gained approach.

Bradley has played at TPC San Antonio six times in his career and has finished in the top 25 in half of those occasions, including finishes of T23 and T8 in his last two trips (2021 and 2022). He has the accuracy to stay out of the trouble off the fairway and the long-iron game to hit greens in regulation, which is one of the keys to success at the course.

Bradley won in Texas in 2011 (Byron Nelson) and can rise to the top if difficult conditions present over the weekend.

Si Woo Kim +3500 (DraftKings)

Si Woo Kim got off to a poor start last week in Houston but bounced back to shoot a 3-under 67 in Round 2. He missed the cut but the ball striking on Friday was enough to quell my concerns about the overall finishing position on the week. Kim gained 2.40 strokes on the field from tee to green in Round 2.

Si Woo has three PGA Tour wins and they followed finishes of MC, T35 and T25, so I don't believe he has to be lighting the world on fire heading into a start to get it done. The South Korean is a player who has proven he can win on the PGA Tour and the course suits his strengths.

Kim has a T4 finish at TPC San Antonio in 2019 as well as a handful of other solid finishes of T22 (2017), T23 (2021) and T13 (2022). He ranks 13th in the field in strokes-gained total in Texas.

Kim can punch his ticket to Augusta National with a win at the Valero Texas Open this week.

Bud Cauley +5000 (DraftKings)

I didn’t expect to be betting Bud Cauley at this type of price in the year 2025, but here we are. The 35-year-old is playing fantastic golf over his past few starts with finishes of T6 at the Players and T4 at the Valspar Championship.

In his most recent start at Innisbrook’s Copperhead course, Cauley was dialed in with his irons. He gained 8.04 strokes on approach, which ranked second in the field. The fact that Cauley was able to play so well the week after being into contention at Sawgrass tells me his form may be here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Cauley has had a lot if success in Texas over the course of his career. He finished T10 at the Valero Texas Open in 2017 and has four top 20s in his career at the Houston Open.

Cauley, who was once a highly regarded prospect before he experienced a significant setback due to a severe car accident in June 2018, which left him as he described “lucky to be alive.” A win this season would be an incredible story on the PGA Tour.

Charley Hoffman +9000 (ESPN BET)

I’ve been eyeing Charley Hoffman to get into contention on the PGA Tour one last time over the next few seasons before his 50th birthday. His best opportunity year after year will very likely be at the Valero Texas Open.

Hoffman, otherwise known as “Mr. Valero,” absolutely loves TPC San Antonio. He’s finished in the top 15 on the leaderboard eight times in his 15 starts at the course, which is remarkable. He won the event in 2016 and finished runner-up in consecutive years in 2019 and 2021 (the 2020 edition was a pandemic casualty).

Hoffman has been up-and-down this season but has shown he still is capable of having ceiling ball striking weeks when the course suits him.

I wouldn't put it past Hoffman to make one more run at it at the Valero.

Mac Meissner +12000 (DraftKings)

Mac Meissner played his college golf at SMU and has strong ties to Texas golf. He currently lives in Dallas and was a three-time All American for the Mustangs. In the 2020-21 season, Meissner set the SMU record with a stroke average of 70.44.

Meissner had a strong ball-striking performance in his most recent start at the Valspar Championship. He gained 7.72 strokes on approach, which ranked fourth in the field.

Last year, the 26-year-old finished T10 at the Valero Texas Open. He also has some additional strong finishes in the state of Texas including a T5 at Colonial last season as a rookie.

Meissner appears to be rounding into form at the right time to take advantage at a course he’s suited extremely well for.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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