The three options for the Pac-12 after the departure of USC and UCLA

The rest of the Pac-12 are in quite the predicament

Just days after the stunning news that USC and UCLA are departing from the Pac-12 to join the Big Ten conference in 2024, the eyes of the college football world are on the other 10 Pac-12 schools to see what happens next.

Well...the remaining 10 and of course Notre Dame who is currently viewed as the biggest catch on the market right now. We seem to be in the early stages of the forming of two mega-conferences between the SEC and Big Ten, with up to 20 teams in each conference. Nonetheless, the Pac-12 as we know it will be changed forever as the conference has lost its premier football and basketball brands. 

While some fans of the conference may be going through the seven stages of grief and denying the fact that losing the two Los Angeles schools is major, college sports expert John Canzano explained in a recent article that the loss of the two programs will cost the conference $200 million per year. This has many people doing one of two things, with the first being blaming former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott for the downfall of the conference, and the second wondering what will happen to the rest of the schools in the conference.

The way that I personally and most outlets see it, there are three legitimate options for Stanford and the rest of the Pac-12 schools. With the first being the conference as a whole breaks up.

Join another conference

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The it's not you it's me (mostly you) route. This is the worst case scenario for the Pac-12, but it is highly likely that the schools will look elsewhere. It has already been reported that Oregon and Washington have applied to join the Big Ten, but were put on the waiting list due to the fact the conference wants to see what Notre Dame chooses to do with their current contract that ties them to the ACC for the near future. Conferences like the Big Ten and Big 12 may look to try and start picking off any Pac-12 team that is looking elsewhere. The Big 12 is especially a threat, as they could very well take in six or more teams and won't have as strict requirements as the Big Ten. 

The one thing that will make it harder for some schools in the conference to leave is the fact that state legislation has began making efforts to get involved. Cazano reported that both Oregon and Washington lawmakers are making a push to keep Oregon/Oregon State and Washington/Washington State together as they do not want their public Pac-12 universities separated. If this comes to fruition and the four schools become a package deal, it seems that it will almost be a guarantee that the Big Ten will deny their entry. 

This of course for the reason that Oregon and Washington are already being viewed at as "tweeners" in terms of value they bring according to CBS Sports. Combine that with the fact that the other two schools will be less valuable, and aren't Association of American Universities which all but one (Nebraska) of the schools in the Big Ten are, it may give the Pac-12 a chance. Depending on what the Big 12 decides to do is likely the biggest factor as to what will happen to the conference, and while CBS Sports did say that the Pac-12 schools are vowing to stay loyal, we all know money talks. 

A Big 12 and Pac-12 merger

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The two scorned conferences that both lost their two premier schools could team up, and form the first mega-conference before the Big Ten and SEC even get a chance to start poaching their schools. There is a seemingly unanimous expectation that college sports are headed to 20 team mega-conferences, but not many were discussing the possibility for there to be three of them. 

This would be optimal for the survival of both conferences, but Dennis Dodd  believes there should only room for the top schools meaning six schools would be left out. Dodd proposed two divisions of eight teams, one being Pac-12 schools and the other being the Big 12 schools. He did say that the six schools left out would be Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oregon State, Washington State, and West Virginia. This would get complicated for a couple reasons, for starters, the Big 12 has already welcomed in UCF, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati after the departure of Texas and Oklahoma so in this scenario they are choosing the new members and Pac-12 members over longtime members. The loss of Kansas basketball would be devastating to the conference, and he left out both Oregon State and Washington state who could very well be legally binding  package deals with their in-state rival. 

While Dodd's idea to merge the conference is on track, I think it would be better if the Big 12 took all 10 of the remaining Pac-12 schools, and then kicked West Virginia and Kansas State to the curb to get the conference to 20 schools. This way, the conference doesn't lose Kansas for basketball and the potential legislation issues are irrelevant. This forms what would likely be the first of three mega-conferences, and then leaves the ACC as the conference that gets ravished by the Big Ten and SEC. This may also bode well for the playoff, as Dodd flirted with the idea of the playoff teams being solely from the Big Ten and SEC.

Add more teams

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Like I previously mentioned, the loss of USC and UCLA hurts the pockets of everyone in the conference immensely. There are no schools out there right now that are valuable enough to replace what the conference lost, but there are handful of schools like San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, and UNLV that can help bolster the conference. Having a school back in the Southern California market albeit not Los Angeles, and adding the Las Vegas market would be huge for the conference. If you couldn't tell already,  every move from this day forward in college sports is solely motivated by money. Things such as geographical location, conference rivalries, and loyalty to a conference are dead. 

If the Pac-12 really wants to make some noise, they can begin attempting to poach schools like TCU and Houston from the Big 12. This gets the Pac-12 in the Texas market, and offers a chance to add some impressive programs. Whether or not the schools are interested in joining what looks like a sinking ship of a conference is unknown. If it was a year ago when the Big 12 was in the same position, then maybe the two would have greatly considered the move. While Houston wasn't in the Big 12 prior to last year, and still haven't began Big 12 play, they have always been viewed as an attractive Group of Five school and were always next in line for a promotion. 

The main issue with the expansion of the Pac-12 is the fact that while San Diego State, Boise State, and even TCU are attractive due to their competitiveness the Pac-12 already failed while having the Los Angeles market. There is no guarantee that adding more schools will keep the Pac-12 alive for years to come. The conference would need much better efforts from the current Pac-12 Commissioner then what they were getting, otherwise this expansion will just delay the inevitable demise of the conference.