Syracuse basketball schedule has everything, even a mystery opponent

It is a little bit of a bad draw in ACC play, including a series with North Carolina, but the Orange will have opportunities to build a solid NCAA Tournament resume

Feb 13, 2024; Syracuse, New York, USA; Syracuse Orange guard JJ Starling (2) drives to the basket as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Elliot Cadeau (2) defends during the second half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

There are almost exclusively two types of opponents in the non-conference portion of the Syracuse slate: extremely high-end and comfortably below average.  Three non-conference opponents are in the top 21 of both KenPom and T-Rank to start the season and eight others are ranked 160 or worse in both with many being much, much worse.

The exceptions are Saint Joseph’s, who hovers around the #100 mark in both projection systems and the mystery opponents in the Players Era Men’s Championship.  The latter, however, is quite likely going to be another strong matchup.

The Orange landed in an extremely difficult event over Thanksgiving week

Of the other 15 teams in the Players Era Men’s Championship that Syracuse is not currently scheduled to play, only three of them are starting the season rated lower that the Orange at KenPom and T-Rank (Notre Dame, Rutgers, and UNLV).  In other words, that TBD slot has a really good chance of turning into another high-level opponent and if it does not, it will be someone fairly comparable in quality to SU.

The nine-day stretch of the Players Era Men’s Championship and home game against Tennessee is by far the most grueling of the slate.  The back-to-back games in Vegas with known opponents are against #2 Houston and #19 Kansas.

After the third contest in three or four days in Las Vegas, Syracuse will come home to play #18 Tennessee to close the toughest stretch of the slate.  If they want to make their goal of returning to the NCAA Tournament a reality, winning at least one of those four games will go a long way.

That goal makes the matchups with Kansas and the unknown opponent the key.  Two neutral court games against teams likely to be competing for tournament with SU against teams who are not among the nation’s elite will serve as measuring sticks and opportunities to position themselves well in the tournament hunt.

The conference schedule features six games against five teams who earned preseason poll votes

Three ACC teams landed in the AP preseason top 25 in #6 Duke, #11 Louisville, and #25 North Carolina.  North Carolina State was the first team to miss the cut while Virginia picked up a couple points in the balloting.

Syracuse will get a home-and-home set with the Tar Heels and single games against the other four teams to earn votes, all on the road.  The other home-and-home series for the Orange is against Pitt and they will miss Stanford, who is expected to be near the bottom of the conference.

Based on getting the top tier of the ACC away from home, it is not the greatest conference slate for SU.  However, the more pressing part is that they play well in their own weight class.

The Orange are right in the middle of a glut in the ACC

At ACC media day, Syracuse was voted to finish 9th in the conference.  KenPom slotted the Orange #68 in the country prior to the season, good for 10th in the ACC, and T-Rank had them #61 in the country and 9th in the conference.

In that conference media poll, SU was in a tight cluster of teams from 7th through 10th.  KenPom had the teams rated between 8th and 14th in the ACC all between 59th and 77th in the nation.  T-Rank was very similar, as the ACC teams ranked between 6th and 13th in the conference were between 51st and 75th nationally.

To put that succinctly, Syracuse needs to perform well against their conference foes of similar quality to rise into contention for an NCAA berth.  With their tough non-conference slate where a 10-3 record might be the best they can muster, the Orange need to shoot for at least a 12-6 ACC mark.  

While reaching those two marks would give them 22 wins, SU can do that without beating a single NCAA Tournament team.  It could easily be losses to the three high-end non-conference opponents and six defeats to the ACC teams who got votes in the preseason polls.  If he truly wants to return to the big dance, Adrian Autry should have a target of 23 wins for his troops this season.

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