Texas A&M Aggies Fall in Latest NCAA Tournament Projections

A two-game skid has cost the Texas A&M Aggies in the latest bracketology updates following a strong January.

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Bucky McMillan reacts during the first half against the LSU Tigers at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

For the first month of SEC play, the Texas A&M Aggies looked like a shoo-in for the Big Dance in March. However, recent losses have clouded their NCAA Tournament outlook, complicating their future.

With eight regular-season games, Texas A&M has plenty to prove about itself and what it can achieve. Head coach Bucky McMillan is challenging his team to be headstrong in their return from consecutive losses, but where do the Aggies project in the latest bracketology updates?

Latest ESPN Bracketology Update Outlines Texas A&M’s Future

Florida Gators forward Alex Condon (21) and Texas A&M Aggies forward Rashaun Agee (12) go for a rebound during the second half at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

A hard-fought and difficult loss to the Florida Gators, 86–67, left a poor impression after the Aggies felt they had been left out of the AP Poll’s top 25 heading into Week 14. Following the snub, Texas A&M dropped a road contest against Alabama and at home against Florida.

As a result of this slump, the Aggies have fallen to the eighth seed in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology projections on ESPN. They were slotted as the seventh seed before their back-to-back losses and are now projected to face the SMU Mustangs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

This would make for an interesting matchup as the two programs faced off in December in a neutral-site overtime thriller. The Aggies erased a 12-point deficit in the final 6:25 of regulation, sending the game to overtime. However, this was overshadowed by a collapse in the extra period; A&M lost 93–80 at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas.

The Aggies entered the fray in January as a double-digit seed and peaked on ESPN's projections as a seventh seed. However, the last week has significantly hurt Texas A&M’s résumé. Dropping to 40th in the NET rankings, the team is 3–5 in Quad 1 games and 14–1 against all other opponents. Texas A&M's varied placement across different rankings shows the volatility of its rest-of-season outlook.

• AP Poll: Third-most votes among unranked teams
• KenPom: 33rd
• NET: 40th
• Torvik: 27th

Texas A&M Aggies guard Pop Isaacs (2) goes to the basket as Florida Gators guard Urban Klavzar (7) defends during the second half at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

With 37 at-large bids available in the NCAA Tournament, the Aggies would like to win the SEC and secure an automatic qualification. They reached the SEC title game twice under head coach Buzz Williams, and McMillan is looking to follow in his footsteps in 2026.

However, the Aggies’ roster is brand new following an offseason exodus. McMillan has proven that “Bucky Ball” can survive in the SEC, making him a potential Coach of the Year candidate, but the path forward is not simple. The SEC is competitive, tied with the Big Ten for a tournament-high 10 bids in Lunardi's latest projection.

Several games lie ahead for the Aggies to improve their seeding, including matchups with fifth-seed Vanderbilt, sixth-seed Arkansas and seventh-seed Kentucky. If McMillan and Co. can remain competitive and finish over .500 in these contests, the Aggies could climb up another seed line before the SEC Tournament.

This could be important. The Aggies will want to avoid the eighth and ninth seeds, as they make for a difficult path. Not only would they theoretically face an on-par team in the first round, but they could face the No. 1 seed in the second round, making it a difficult route for a deep run.

Aggies Fall Seed Line in Latest March Madness Projections

Texas A&M Aggies guard Rylan Griffen (3) drives against Florida Gators center Rueben Chinyelu (9) during the second half at Reed Arena. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

ESPN was not alone in souring on Texas A&M. Following their consecutive losses, the Aggies dropped a seed line in most major NCAA Tournament projections.

CBS Sports has Texas A&M ranked as a ninth seed, facing off against NC State in the Round of 64. This would be an interesting matchup with a unique background. The two programs have met on the hardwood once, a non-conference game that the Wolfpack won in 1978 in Anchorage, Alaska.

The No. 9 seed line is also where James Fletcher III of On3 has A&M projected. The Aggies would play the eighth-seeded St. Mary’s Gaels, who are currently third in the West Coast Conference behind Santa Clara and Gonzaga with a 21–4 (10–2) record. A&M was an eighth seed in On3's previous projection.

Another potential March Madness rematch is projected by USA Today, which has the maroon and white as a ninth seed, dropping one spot from their previous update. This would pit the Aggies against the UCF Knights, two teams that have become familiar. UCF won 86–74 over Texas A&M on Nov. 14 in the second leg of a two-season home-and-home series. The Knights also won in 2024.