Has TCU Done Enough To Earn A Regional Spot?

With the selection show only a day away, the Horned Frogs await their fate. So, let's review their resume and give some insight into what the committee will be discussing.

Sam Myers after a foul ball / Brian McClean, KillerFrogs/OnAssignment

While pre-season projections had TCU as a top-five team entering the season and an Omaha lock, the season has unfolded differently, and the Horned Frogs aren't guaranteed a spot in post-season play. However, TCU Horned Frogs head coach Kirk Saarloos believes his team has done enough to earn a place in a regional and college baseball publications such as D1 Baseball and Baseball America agree.

While the Horned Frogs don't have a spot cemented, they have an extremely strong resume, which the committee will review on Monday morning before making its decision on the Frog's fate.

The RPI

As of May 25th, TCU has the 40th-highest RPI in the country, but this could potentially change as the rest of the games around the country finish up this weekend. However, RPI is not the only metric used anymore since the NCAA introduced DSR. For DSR, TCU comes at 34th in the country, leaving TCU right at the near end of available spots after the at-large bids sort themselves out.

SOS

The Horned Frogs have the 38th strength-of-schedule in the country, which is reflected in their RPI and DSR rankings even though the record is unflattering. Against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, TCU is 13-22 against them, with the majority of their losses coming from conference play. Conversely, they are 20-4 against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents. Despite having a strong SOS, TCU ranks third in the country in strikeouts per nine innings with a K/9 rate of 11.5.

Name Brand

Like it or not, the TCU brand has become a staple of post-season play in college baseball, and the committee will always favor a nationally known team over a lesser-known brand. This was a point discussed by Micah Beutell from CollegeBaseballCentral when he appeared on the latest KillerFrogs Bullpen episode that he believes will help the Horned Frogs odds in making a regional appearance.

Do all of these points guarantee the Horned Frogs will make post-season play? Of course not, but it should relieve the TCU faithful, who are worried the Horned Frogs will miss a regional appearance for the first time since 2018. All fans can do now is wait until 11 a.m. Monday morning, when the selection show airs, to find out their fate, but in my opinion, the Frogs should be in.