TCU Strengthens NCAA Tournament Case With Road Win at Kansas State

The Horned Frogs continue to improve their March Madness tournament odds after taking care of business in Manhattan, Kansas, against the Kansas State Wildcats once again.

TCU stayed on top for most of this game, taking the lead early in the first half and never looking back. After grabbing the lead around the 7:00 mark in the first half, Kansas State trailed the Horned Frogs the rest of the way. The Frogs played good basketball on both sides of the ball, allowing them to win on the road, 77-68.

There were just five lead changes and nine ties before the Frogs took over, as Xavier Edmonds made a layup with 6:43 left in the first half to give TCU a lead they would not give up.

Edmonds had another career day, posting another double-double with 15 points, a career-high-tying 13 rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. The junior forward is one of two players with nine or more double-doubles in conference play, and he is in good company with Texas Tech star J.T. Toppin.

Xavier Edmonds Double-Double 😤
📊15 PTS | 13 REB | 5-8 FG

Highlights vs. Kansas State 🎥#Big12MBB | @TCUBasketball pic.twitter.com/sOMvd5Yz1j
— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) March 1, 2026

Tanner Toolson, David Punch, and Liutauras Lelevicius also played a major part in pushing TCU over the line. Toolson crossed the 1,000-career-point mark while continuing his energy, scoring 14, as Punch added 13 and Lelevicius 12.

Welcome to the 1,000-point club @TannerToolson_5 !#GoFrogs pic.twitter.com/5xJGdewp3b
— TCU Men's Basketball (@TCUBasketball) March 1, 2026

P.J. Haggerty and Nate Johnson did everything they could to keep Kansas State in the game. Haggerty scored 18 points, seven rebounds, and five assists, including 14 points in the first half when he was on a heater before the Horned Frogs found an answer. Johnson tallied 16 points, nine assists, and three steals. However, the duo turned the ball over 11 times, which allowed the Horned Frogs to convert those mistakes into 28 points.

Despite being down since the first half, the Wildcats never gave up. They managed to cut the deficit to just one point twice. Kansas State shot 50 percent from the field, which is a solid number, but they were unable to overcome the turnovers that the Horned Frogs capitalized on.

The Horned Frogs have now won their last three games, putting them two games above .500 in the Big 12 with just two games remaining. TCU sits at 19-10 overall and 9-7 in conference play, positioning itself for potentially one of the best seasons of the Jamie Dixon era.

They have now swept three Big 12 opponents this season: Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. This marks the first time since 2018 that the Frogs have accomplished that and just the second time ever. They have also won six of their last seven Big 12 games for the first time in program history. They are on a heater and peaking at the right time.

What this win means for TCU's March Madness hopes

This win further strengthened TCU's NCAA Tournament résumé. Prior to today’s game, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi gave TCU greater than a 90 percent chance of making the tournament. According to Lunardi, TCU currently sits on the bubble in the “Last Four Byes” category, which is one step above where they were earlier this week in the “First Four In.”

pic.twitter.com/qhQcz6dhsM
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 1, 2026

While there are still two games remaining, TCU is likely just one win away from locking up its bid for good. The Horned Frogs should feel confident about hearing their name called on Selection Sunday.

Two Games That Could Define Everything

TCU's regular season isn't over yet.T CU will now head to Lubbock to face No. 16 Texas Tech in search of a win that would lock things up. Tech is already safely in the tournament field, but that doesn't make the game easier. Winning on the road against a tournament team would remove almost any lingering doubt about TCU's standing. The game will be televised on FS1 at 6 pm CT on Tuesday.

The final game of the Frogs' regular season ends next Saturday at home in the Schollmaier Arena.

Nothing is official. Not yet. But, after beating Kansas State on the road and watching the scoreboard break their way elsewhere, TCU can see the bracket line comkinginto view.