Where TCU Women Land in Latest NCAA Projections After Big 12 Tournament

As women’s college basketball conference tournaments continue throughout this week, the NCAA Tournament picture is gaining more clarity.

Tournament champions across the country are earning automatic bids to the Big Dance while the rest of the field will be filled out with 37 at-large bids. TCU women’s basketball will join the field as an at-large bid and Big 12 tournament champion West Virginia snagged one of the 31 automatic slots.

At this point, it’s almost 100% certain the Horned Frogs will host first and second round NCAA Tournament games, which run March 20-23. The question is, will TCU be a No. 2 or a No. 3 seed?

The difference between a two and a three seed is minimal when you look at potential matchups, especially considering those seeds could meet anyway in the Elite Eight. A higher seed, though, might place TCU in its preferred region.

TCU’s Tournament Projection

Entering the Big 12 tournament title game on Sunday, the Horned Frogs had moved up to a two seed in the Fort Worth region based on ESPN's tournament projections. That’s an ideal scenario for TCU, considering those Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games would take place less than three miles from campus at Dickies Arena.

The fact that TCU could play regional NCAA Tournament games there is purely a coincidence. Cities put in bids for NCAA tournament games years in advance through a formal, multi-year application process. The NCAA awarded Fort Worth and TCU the 2026 NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Championship Regional Rounds in October 2020.

Still, players and coaches would sleep in their own beds, practice on their own court, and enjoy a pseudo home-court advantage until the Final Four, if the Horned Frogs make it that far.

“It's a golden opportunity,” TCU head coach Mark Campbell said of the situation following a recent home game. “At the same time, you don't want to put pressure on the team. I'm fully aware of how unique that is.”

Campbell experienced this hometown advantage while an assistant at Oregon. In 2019, the Ducks played Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games at the Moda Center in Portland, less than two hours away from Eugene. A crowd of 11,538 saw Oregon beat Mississippi State to reach the Final Four.

TCu women's basketbal — Mar 8, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; TCU Horned Frogs center Clara Silva (17) drives to the basket during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

But after TCU lost Sunday against West Virginia, the projections shifted again.

Not only did TCU fall to a No. 3 seed, it also moved to Sacramento region 4. The Horned Frogs would be forced to leave Texas a bit early and play at the Golden 1 Center, home of the NBA’s Sacramento Kings.

TCU’s fate, as it were, is now in the hands of the selection committee. The projections give an idea of where teams could land in the tournament field, but it is not the final word. That will come down on Sunday, March 15.

The Horned Frogs put together a great resume, but only so many teams can be placed in the Fort Worth region. The committee will have to decide if TCU did enough this season to earn a few extra games in Cowtown.

Big 12 Tournament Projections

The Big 12 currently has eight teams projected for the tournament field. West Virginia moved up to a host seed, and Arizona State got back into the field after reaching the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals as part of the “Last Four In” group.

Teams are listed by seed followed by the host school for the first and second rounds.

Fort Worth Region 1	Seed	Host
Texas Tech	6	Michigan
Iowa State	9	UConn
Arizona State	12	Ole Miss

Sacramento Region 2
West Virginia	4	West Virginia
Baylor	6	Louisville
Colorado	10	LSU

Sacramento Region 4
TCU*	3	TCU
Oklahoma State	8	South Carolina

*TCU is projected to play No. 14 seed Idaho in the first round, and also host No. 6 seed Alabama and the No. 11 seed in region 4, either Nebraska or Richmond. Nebraska and Richmond would play in the First Four games, March 18-19, with the winner staying in Fort Worth if this projection holds.

First Four Out
BYU
Utah

Next Four Out
Kansas State

Automatic Bids

Several teams claimed automatic bids this weekend, and another 21 will be handed out this week. Here’s who is guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament so far:

Conference	Team
Atlantic 10	Rhode Island
ACC	Duke
Big 12	West Virginia
Big South	High Point
Big 10	UCLA
Mountain West	UNLV
Ohio Valley	Western Illinois
SEC	Texas
SoCon	Samford
Summit League	South Dakota State

Important NCAA Tournament Dates

Date	Event	Location
Saturday, March 14	Top 16 seeds announced (Alphabetical Order)	Online
Sunday, March 15	Tournament Field Announced	ESPN (TV), 7 p.m.
March 18-19	First Four	Host Seed Sites
March 20-23	First & Second Rounds	Top 16 Host Seeds
March 27-30	Sweet Sixteen & Elite Eight	Fort Worth & Sacramento
April 3	Final Four	Phoenix
April 5	Championship	Phoenix

A Historic Foundation for March

Despite the 62-53 loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament title game, the foundation for No. 10 TCU's postseason run remains historically solid. Finishing the conference slate 29-5, the Horned Frogs have achieved back-to-back outright Big 12 regular season titles and have essentially locked up the right to host the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament at Schollmaier Arena. While the shift from No. 2 to a No. 3 seed remains a possibility depending on other conference tournament results, the objective of starting the tournament on home court is secured.

Join the Debate on the KillerFrogs Fan Forum

As bracketology continues to shift and the wait for Selection Sunday begins, the discussion is heating up. Our community of die-hard fans has been the home for TCU athletics since 1997, and right now, the focus is all on basketball.