College Football Conference Championship Predictions: SEC, Big 12, More
The 2023 college football regular season is in the books. With the College Football Playoff now growing large in the window, every spot is wide open. Those spots will be determined on Sunday, Dec. 3, with the CFP Selection Show, but each contestant has one more shot at pleading their case with Conference Championship Weekend. This weekend has the potential to make the CFP picture clear, or perhaps the muddiest it's ever been.
Five unbeatens contest for a conference title: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State, and Liberty. The first four vie for a CFP berth while the Flames are certainly in the mix for a New Year's Six bowl bid. Needless to say, everything sits on the line.
Let's take a look at all 10 Conference Championships and how they may each shake out.
Conference USA: New Mexico State (10-3) At #24 Liberty (12-0)
Nov 11, 2023; Lynchburg, Virginia, USA; Liberty Flames running back Quinton Cooley (20) runs the ball in the third quarter at Williams Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-USA TODAY Sports
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Liberty is one of a few teams left with a shot at a New Year's Six berth, though that would likely require Tulane losing. New Mexico State is in the midst of their best FBS season ever, thanks large in part to Jerry Kill. Their defense has been stout this year and QB Diego Pavia is one of the country's most exciting.
However, Liberty is far and away the more talented team and they handle this game at home. This should be an exciting start to the weekend with two dynamic QBs and terrific run games, but the Flames' talent likely wins out.
The pick: Liberty 31, New Mexico State 21
Pac-12: #5 Oregon (11-1) vs. #3 Washington (12-0)
Oct 14, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) during the game against the Oregon Ducks at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
To the delight of almost every college football fan, we get a rematch of the Week 7 thriller in Seattle. Washington pulled off a late win, secured by a missed Oregon field goal as time expired. But since then, the Huskies are outscoring their opponents by just 6.5 points per game, compared to Oregon's 22.3 points per game (against similar competition).
Bo Nix is the favorite to win the Heisman, and Oregon is playing better football right now. Seeing the same opponent again benefits the losing team in a close game more than the winning one.
The pick: Oregon 34, Washington 28
Big 12: #18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. #7 Texas (11-1)
Nov 11, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns defensive lineman T'Vondre Sweat (93) celebrates a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Sports betting odds don't anticipate much of a struggle here, as Texas is a multi-score favorite. Although on the outside looking in, a victory here (and a loss by a couple of teams ahead of them – one guaranteed to happen in the Pac-12) is critical if Texas wants to make the CFP field. However, Oklahoma State would love nothing more than to give the Longhorns a parting gift in their final Big 12 game.
Find a much more in-depth breakdown of the Big 12 Championship Game here.
The pick: Texas 34, Oklahoma State 17
MAC: Miami-OH (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1)
Dec 3, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; MAC Commissioner Dr. Jon Steinbrecher (center left) hands the MAC Championship trophy to Toledo head coach Jason Candle after Toledo beat Ohio University at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Until last year, Toledo was the quintessential "can't close the deal" team with superior talent. The defending MAC Champions roll into the title game yet again with the conference's most dynamic quarterback, top rusher, and large and by far best defense. Miami fields a stout defense of their own, and this game likely resembles the 17-7 slog of last year's game (which involved Ohio).
The two biggest playmakers on the field both wear blue, and it appears that Jason Candle is able to win the big games now. At the very least, we'll know if he can after Saturday afternoon.
The pick: Toledo 20, Miami (OH) 17
Mountain West: Boise State (7-5) at UNLV (9-3)
Nov 24, 2023; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) carries the ball during the second half against the Air Force Falcons at Albertsons Stadium. Boise State defeats Air Force 27-19. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
One quick look at the records here might suggest a lopsided affair. But Boise State's record is incredibly misleading; four of the five Broncos losses came by a single score and three of those on walk-off plays (a blocked field goal touchdown, a Hail Mary, and a game-winning field goal). In reality, Boise State is playing closer to a 9-3 team under their interim head coach.
UNLV has been a terrific story and the coaching staff is coveted by a number of current open positions. Though a home affair for the Rebels, Allegiant Stadium is an NFL venue that's merely adopted by UNLV. Boise almost certainly travels well for this game.
The pick: Boise State 35, UNLV 21
AAC: SMU (10-2) at #22 Tulane (11-1)
Nov 18, 2023; Boca Raton, Florida, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) drops back to pass against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the first half at FAU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
SMU is playing this game without starting QB Preston Stone. Stone suffered a broken leg last week and gives way to redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings. However, defense has been the strongest suit for the Mustangs this season – a unit that needs to play its best game of the year against a dynamic offense led by Michael Pratt and Jha'Quan Jackson.
This is the first time in school history Tulane has made back-to-back conference title games. Last year, they secured a Cotton Bowl berth. This year, that is up for grabs in SMU's last game in the AAC. The Green Wave has been skirting by opponents and benefitted from five UTSA turnovers last week. In fact, all four of Tulane's touchdowns came on fields of shorter than 50 yards.
The pick: SMU 27, Tulane 20.
SEC: #1 Georgia (12-0) vs. #8 Alabama (11-1)
Nov 11, 2023; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Javon Bullard (22) intercepts a pass over the top of Mississippi Rebels wide receiver Dayton Wade (19) during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
It doesn't get bigger than this. Nick Saban and Kirby Smart square off in their second SEC Championship Game in three seasons. The last time out? Alabama handed Georgia a loss – the last time the Bulldogs lost a game.
This game deserves a much lengthier dive into it than the short paragraphs here. But the gist is that both teams have ultra-efficient offenses in different ways. Both teams have defenses not playing up to historic standards set by their predecessors (though both playing very well!). Georgia is a notable favorite in the game, but Alabama likely keeps this much closer than expected.
For those rooting for an SEC-less Playoff field: Put on your Crimson gear.
The pick: Georgia 37, Alabama 34
Sun Belt: Appalachian State (8-4) at Troy (10-2)
Nov 12, 2022; Troy, Alabama, USA; Troy Trojans head coach Jon Sumrall celebrates with his team after a 10-9 victory against the Army Black Knights at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
Very few coaches nationally have done a better job at their program than Jon Sumrall. In two seasons, Sumrall has piled up a 22-4 record, a Sun Belt Championship, and a Cure Bowl victory. Troy hosts a surging App State team that played their way back into contention after a rocky start to the year.
The Mountaineers carry a five-game win streak into this weekend; the Trojans carry a nine-game win streak. Defense wins championships, and Troy has one of the conference's best yet again.
The pick: Troy 24, App State 13
ACC: #14 Louisville (11-1) vs. #4 Florida State (12-0)
Nov 18, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) catches a ball in the endzone to score a touchdown against the North Alabama Lions during the third quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
A brutal turn of events for Florida State occurred in a Week 12 buy-game against FCS North Alabama. Star QB Jordan Travis went down with a gruesome leg injury and he confirmed his career with the Seminoles is over. Instead, Tate Rodemaker got the start against rival Florida, completing fewer than 50% of his passes for just 134 yards.
Louisville rosters one of the better pass rushes nationally. However, QB Jack Plummer goes against a ferocious pass rush of his own. Both defenses are extremely talented and stout, but FSU still rosters the better weapons.
The pick: Florida State 35, Louisville 28
Big Ten: #16 Iowa (10-2) vs. #2 Michigan (12-0)
Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State lost 30-24
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Sadly, the last conference championship of the day is also projected to be the biggest blowout. Iowa's offense is dead last in the country in total yards, behind hapless teams like Kent State and East Carolina. But nonetheless, Kirk Ferentz's crew won 10 games and the Big Ten West.
Defense has won the Hawkeyes games, but the strategy of winning with 12 points works against Nebraska and Northwestern – not against the No. 2 team in the country. Michigan is on a roll and is perhaps the most motivated team in the country as Jim Harbaugh returns to the sidelines. Avert your eyes, folks, this could get ugly.
The pick: Michigan 42, Iowa 6
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