How Do I Read Sports Betting Odds This Football Season?
Let's face it – sports betting odds are as integrated into modern college football as kickoff times. Major media networks share point spreads and totals in their ticker, and talking heads bring up odds when breaking down games. With the expansion of legal sports betting in the United States, this aspect of consuming sports is unavoidable and here to stay.
So, what do all the numbers mean? Let's run down the top terms you need to know to understand sports betting odds this college football season.
Point Spreads
In its simplest form, a point spread refers to how many points a team is favored over their opponent. It's not as simple as saying, "Team X is favored by seven points, therefore they will win by seven points," though. It's merely an average outcome, with possibilities above or below it certainly in the probability cards.
For example, if TCU is favored by 21 points over Colorado in Week 1, that doesn't mean nobody expects them to win by 22 or 28 or more points. It's simply the average expected margin of victory.
Every point spread has a plus side and a minus side. Underdogs – or teams not favored to win the game – are represented with plus numbers (i.e. +7.5 or +3) while favorites are denoted with a minus number (-6 or -13.5). Oftentimes, sportsbooks will set a point spread with a half-point to avoid ties or "pushes" (like if a team wins by exactly seven points).
So, say someone bets TCU -20.5 points against Colorado. The Horned Frogs would need to win by at least 21 points for that bet to be successful. Should Colorado lose by 20 or fewer points, or win the game outright, a bet on the Buffaloes would be successful.
Why Do Point Spreads Move?
Point spreads move according to the betting populous, or the "market." After opening, oddsmakers rarely, if ever, move the point spread on their own.
Perhaps you've heard about "public money" and "sharp money" being on one side or another. This is typically useless information, no matter how much it's pushed on the public. While the "sharp money" may have been on TCU at -2.5, they may no longer be on them at -4, therefore the "sharp side" is muddy.
Public money, or bets received from non-professional bettors, also rarely moves odds. Only in high-profile events like an NFL game or the National Championship do public bets really push lines.
And, to debunk one final common myth: sportsbooks do not move odds to have equal action on each side.
Moneylines
The concept of a moneyline bet is simpler than a point spread. It's just a bet on who will win the game.
However, the math behind moneylines varies a bit. For example, a +100 moneyline, or "even," implies a 50% expected win rate. -120 implies a 54.55% win rate and so on. To fully convert moneylines into percentages, you'll either need a formula or an odds converter calculator (my preferred method, there are tons of free ones available online).
Bettors tend to bet point spreads over moneylines because, at -20.5, TCU has a 99.4% expected win rate, or -1375 on the moneyline. A bettor would need to risk $1,375 to simply win $100 – a risk many do not see worth the investment.
Point Totals
Point totals, or "over/unders," are how many combined points are expected from a certain game. To stay on the Colorado-TCU example, the game has a point total set at 64.5 points.
Bettors then decide whether they want to bet over or under the total. A bet on the over would require 65 combined points or more (i.e. 45-20 final, 35-32, etc.) while a bet on the under would require 64 or fewer combined points (27-20, 33-30, etc.).
Like point spreads, totals aren't oddsmakers saying that a certain game will score exactly 64 points, rather, that's the most likely outcome. 66 points may still offer a 22% probability, 44 may offer 5%, and so on.
Taking It A Step Further
Every point spread and total come with odds (or "price"). Consider the following example:
- TCU -20.5 (-110)
- Colorado +20.5 (-110)
The -110 are the odds for each side of the bet. It means that it would require a $110 bet to win $100 on the listed side. But these odds, like moneylines, imply probability. So, there's a 52.4% probability that TCU covers the -20.5 point spread and a 47.6% probability that they do not.
But, wait! Both sides have -110, and therefore both sides have a 52.4% implied probability. That adds up to more than 100%, right?
That margin over 100% – which, in this case, would be 4.8% ((52.4% x 2)-100) – is called the vigorish (or "vig" or "hold") and implies the cut a sportsbook takes to operate. Think of it as a tax or a profit margin necessary for the sportsbook to expect to stay in business.
But, next time you look at a point spread, don't think of it as "Vegas says TCU will win by 21!" rather, "The oddsmakers expect a 52.4% probability that TCU wins by at least 21, and a 47.6% chance that they do not."
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