Predicting Every Game Of The 2022 TCU Football Season
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The TCU Horned Frogs haven't dealt with this much change since their 2012 move to the Big 12. And at least then they had continuity in the coaching ranks.
This season, TCU has a new head coach, new coordinators, and a possible competition at quarterback. The defense needs a total overhaul and outlook for the Frogs hasn't been this murky in some time. Let's try to provide a little clarity.
Is predicting a record going game-by-game an effective method? Not really. Are we going to hit on all of these? Almost certainly not. Are we going to do it anyway?
You bet.
Predicting TCU's 2022 Football Season Game-by-Game
According to ESPN's FPI, TCU has the 46th-ranked strength of schedule for the coming season (second-easiest in the Big 12).
Week 1: at Colorado Buffaloes
I'll be frank– Colorado is a bad football team. They come in 99th in the SP+ power rating system for 2022, lost most of their biggest playmakers, and finished 122nd (out of 130) in points scored per drive last season.
Could this be a runaway blowout for TCU? Perhaps. Colorado lost their six best defensive players from last year, a unit that was respectable. On the road at altitude, the Frogs are favored at sportsbooks by more than a touchdown and that counts for something.
This would be a very, very concerning game to lose.
Predicted result: WIN (1-0)
Week 2: vs. Tarleton State Texans
Speaking of concerning games to lose, TCU gets a freebee Week 2 at home against FCS Tarleton State. No offense to fans and grads, but these are two different football leagues.
Predicted result: WIN (2-0)
Week 3: BYE
Week 4: at SMU Mustangs
This is a game TCU lost last season and some may peg it as a potential lookahead spot with Oklahoma upcoming next week. However, Sonny Dykes won't let his TCU team sleep on his former SMU team. In the locker room, there's no excuse for losing this game.
Granted, SMU should be pretty good again, returning star QB Tanner Mordecai, but this game should draw TCU's best effort. That should result in a win.
Predicted result: WIN (3-0)
Week 5: vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Alright, the honeymoon's over. Welcome to big-time football. The bottom line here is, Oklahoma is way more talented than TCU. Does that mean the Frogs have no chance? No, certainly not. But this game would need a repeat of last year's Baylor effort to get a chance at an upset.
TCU will be a multi-touchdown underdog in this game. New Sooners head coach Brent Venables knows what it takes to win at a big-time program. His players won't be overlooking this trip to Fort Worth.
While new DC Joseph Gillespie is a strong hire and TCU returns a bunch of defensive starters, those returning starters aren't the same caliber as what OU is rolling out on offense this season.
In SP+ and FPI power ratings, TCU ranks 13 points below Oklahoma. They're projected for 5.5 fewer wins. An upset is possible, but I'm playing the odds here.
Predicted result: LOSS (3-1)
Week 6: at Kansas Jayhawks
Last year's near-loss to Kansas sticks in the mind of all 14 returning starters. Good news: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium is far from an intimidating place to play. The cat's out of the bag about KU's athletic QB Jalon Daniels. Don't expect TCU to need a last-second field goal to wrap up this game.
Despite Daniels being a good player and the Jayhawks returning eight starters on offense and seven on defense, they come in to 2022 ranked the second-lowest Power 5 program (109th overall) in SP+.
Part of being a good coach is putting the throttle down on beatable teams. Expect TCU to do that this year.
Predicted result: WIN (4-1)
Week 7: vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Pokes lost just about everything they could on defense: their coordinator, their star players, and eight starters. However, they supplement by hiring another stellar DC, Derek Mason.
Oklahoma State's won at least eight games in 12 of the last 14 years; that's with various play styles, strengths, players, etc. To assume this is the year that buries them is foolish. FPI ranks OK State 14th in the nation, as well.
Last year, athletic playmakers at QB gouged TCU's defense, and we all remember last year's 63-17 drubbing. Even though this series comes back to Fort Worth, expecting a 46-point turnaround is unrealistic.
Predicted result: LOSS (4-2)
Week 8: vs. Kansas State Wildcats
TCU fans should absolutely not be overlooking this game. They did last year, and it was the game that sent Gary Patterson packing.
To start, TCU's run defense has to show improvement this year; with Gillespie, you would hope that's the case. However, the Frogs still have to deal with All-American Deuce Vaughn, who now is playing alongside a real playmaker at QB, transfer Adrian Martinez.
ESPN's Bill Connelly (creator of the SP+) said that K-State could be a surprise team with top-15 upside.
Is this a pick skewed by my idea that K-State is a top-25 team this year? Maybe.
*Ducks*
Predicted result: LOSS (4-3)
Week 9: at West Virginia Mountaineers
"You're only picking this game because it happened last year."
Yes and no.
A theme of this prediction piece is that TCU's run defense was absolutely abysmal last year and returning most of those same defense starters– particularly up front– isn't inspiring. Coaching is important, but it can only take talent so far.
WVU ran the ball all over TCU in Fort Worth last season in one of the most pitiful efforts I've ever seen on an FBS football field. Who do the Mountaineers return? All five offensive line starters.
Who else do they return? An All-American on the defensive line.
Where are TCU's biggest question marks this coming season? On the line of scrimmage.
Predicted result: LOSS (4-4)
Week 10: vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
By now if you're still reading, it's probably out of anger that I've had the gall to pick against TCU in what many fans would consider automatic wins. And for that, I'm sorry.
Here's a win for you at home. Texas Tech might be able to score points in avalanches this year, but they have as much turnover as TCU and have fewer playmakers. Especially off three straight losses, you absolutely cannot lose a game like this one.
Predicted result: WIN (5-4)
Week 11: at Texas Longhorns
If this is honesty hour, there's not one position group that TCU trumps Texas in. Receivers? Texas has two All-American candidates. Defensive backs? Sure, but that doesn't do any good against one of the top receiving corps in the country.
Heading into Texas – assuming the Horns haven't packed it in yet – this is a really tough ask. As we saw last year, TCU doesn't have the dudes on defense to run with Bijan Robinson plus the litany of All Star talent out wide.
This one's gonna hurt, but Texas is the more talented team. They're eighth in FPI and 29th in SP+. Yes, we all know what Texas has done in the past decade, but I play the odds and the Longhorns are just a more talented team this year.
It would take a shocking turn of events for the Frogs to be able to keep pace on the scoreboard, even against Texas' pretty terrible defense.
Predicted result: LOSS (5-5)
Week 12: at Baylor Bears
Dave Aranda has the Baylor Bears here to stay. A good coach can learn from and improve upon past losses, and to expect TCU to pull back-to-back upsets of Baylor is asking a lot.
Traveling to Waco to face a team that'll likely be in the Big 12 title race again is a massive undertaking. Despite losing a ton of starters on defense, the Bears rank 21st nationally this coming season in SP+ and have Phil Steele's fourth-ranked defensive line.
Coming off a road trip to Texas is also difficult to turn the boat around.
*Ducks again*
Predicted result: LOSS (5-6)
Week 13: vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Bowl eligibility is on the line. If Dykes and TCU don't finish the year strong, they're going to be watching the postseason from home once again.
A lot departed Iowa State this past offseason, including longtime starter Brock Purdy and workhorse running back Breece Hall. They do return a pair of All-Americans, receiver Xavier Hutchinson and pass rusher Will McDonald, but overall their roster is uninspiring.
Phil Steele notes that head coach Matt Campbell does his best work without expectations– and that's proven to be true– but this is a winnable football game.
A winnable football game with postseason eligibility on the line.
Predicted result: WIN (6-6)
6-6 should be enough to make a bowl game and is a decent result for Sonny Dykes' first season in Fort Worth. Surely it doesn't meet hopes held by TCU diehards, but the roster talent just isn't there yet.
Remember– Dykes supposed to be is a long-term fix.
Will I be right about every game result? No, probably not, so feel free to screenshot and send my way after the season. But a 6- or 7-win TCU is inbound in 2022.
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