Sugar Bowl: Alabama Vs. Kansas State New Year's Six Preview, Prediction
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The Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) take on the Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) in the Sugar Bowl, a New Year's Six bowl game in Bowl Season. Kickoff comes from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La., on Saturday, Dec. 31, at 11:00 a.m. CT.
Can the upstart Wildcats pull off another upset in their biggest bowl game since 2012?
Sizing Up The Alabama Crimson Tide
Covering up the 10-2 record for Alabama, you'd think this is one of the most disappointing teams Nick Saban's ever had in Tuscaloosa. From his standpoint, you'd be right.
Two losses in the regular season knocked Alabama out of the CFP race earlier than ever before, with this year's Playoff being just the second time the Tide failed to make it. Deficiencies on defense and the offensive line cost Alabama a pair of games by a grand total of four points.
Bryce Young followed up his Heisman-winning season with another statistically-excellent year, but not enough to be invited back to New York this season. For the first time in ages, the Crimson Tide didn't roster a top receiver in the nation, with Ja'Corey Brooks leading the way with just 623 receiving yards.
Instead, it was do-it-all utility back Jahmyr Gibbs that shone, leading the team in rushing (850 yards) and coming in third in receiving (376).
On the other side of the ball, immense talent went majorly under-appreciated, with superstar Will Anderson not quite following up his 32-tackle-for-loss season in spectacular fashion. Regardless, Anderson and multiple teammates will hear their name called on the opening night of the NFL Draft in April.
It's quite possible that we all jumped on our first chance to count Alabama out because they weren't excellent this year.
Sizing Up The Kansas State Wildcats
On the complete other end of the spectrum, Kansas State was talked about quite a bit with their rise to prominence. Excellent play from Adrian Martinez and Will Howard (in relief) propelled K-State to a 10-win season and their first outright Big 12 championship since 2003.
The root of their success comes from their terrific coaching staff, headed by Chris Kliemann and Wildcat legend turned OC Collin Klein. They maintained a level of high offensive play while also reducing the previously-lucrative workload of running back Deuce Vaughn.
Defensively is where K-State really shone through. Game wrecker "King" Felix Anudike-Uzomah anchored a defensive line that forced the 12th-most turnovers in the nation.
Kansas State's biggest weapon, though, is their versatility. When the run game couldn't get going, the air game did. When the offense was slow out of the gate, the defense stepped up. Kansas State is equipped to beat teams in a myriad of ways, highlighted by their Big 12 Championship victory over TCU.
Notable Injuries, Opt Outs
Alabama: WR JoJo Earle (transfer), OL Javion Cohen (transfer)
Kansas State: None
Why Alabama Can Win
Four total points separate Alabama from being unbeaten and in the CFP. Four.
Both of those losses came to ranked teams on the road. To say this Alabama team is worse off because they have two losses is a farce.
Both Young and Anderson will play in this game despite being high NFL Draft prospects. No opt outs here, the Tide are at full strength.
While the Tide don't have a game-breaking receiver this season, their offense as a whole is third in scoring (41.4 points per game) and 20th in efficiency. Young is still a Heisman-level quarterback capable of bailing his team out whenever they need.
And on defense, they still have immeasurable talent. Anderson only put up fewer stats than last season because of the amount of attention he received from double and triple teams.
On the back end, Alabama fields Jordan Battle, a potential first-round safety that leads the secondary. On their best days, Alabama's defense is as good as any.
Finally, coaching experience matters and no one is more battle-tested in big time games than Saban. The Tide can win on a talent and coaching advantage alone.
Why Kansas State Can Win
Aside from the offensive line and occasional defensive meltdowns, this Alabama committed more penalties than any Saban-led team ever. In fact, only four teams in the entire nation committed more penalty yards per game than Bama. Imperfection in games like this leads to opportunity and Kansas State is a team fully capable of capitalizing on undisciplined play.
While the Sugar Bowl maintains its status as a high honor for its participants, this can't feel like anything but a consolation prize for the Crimson Tide. There's no discussion to be had– this game means the world more to Kliemann and Kansas State.
And motivation in these games is a major factor.
Kansas State already beat the odds in the Big 12 Championship game, certainly they have one more in them. Howard is a tough kid with a strong desire to win.
As with every team that plays Alabama, the Tide are going to get Kansas State's pinnacle effort.
Alabama Vs. Kansas State Prediction
Pinnacle effort and just enough talent and grit is a winning recipe in Bowl Season. Already this year, we've seen upsets predicated on the will and toughness to win the game– Middle Tennessee, Troy, and New Mexico State all pulled upsets in similar fashion.
Kansas State is the more disciplined team this season and I don't expect them to beat themselves. Alabama on the other hand, I not only expect them to beat themselves in this game, but actually predict it.
The Wildcats are licking their chops at the opportunity to play this game. Sign me up for another Sugar Bowl win by the Big 12.
The pick: Kansas State 29-26
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