Santa Clara vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament 1st Round

Could there be an upset in the first game of Friday’s NCAA Tournament action.

Mark Pope’s Kentucky Wildcats earned a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they’re just 2.5-point favorites in the first round against the No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos.

An up-and-down regular season has Kentucky in a worse spot than it was last season – when it was a No. 3 seed – but the Wildcats did finish the season strong with a pair of SEC Tournament wins before losing to No. 1 Florida.

Meanwhile, Santa Clara is the third West Coast Conference team to make the tourney this year behind No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 7 St. Mary’s. The Broncos went 26-8 with a 15-3 record in WCC play before losing in the conference tournament. Santa Clara is one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 22nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

So, can it upset an SEC team in the first round?

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop and my prediction for this first-round battle in the NCAA Tournament.

Santa Clara vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Santa Clara +2.5 (-102)
Kentucky -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Santa Clara: +136
Kentucky: -162

Total

160.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Santa Clara vs. Kentucky How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 12:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Enterprise Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Santa Clara record: 26-8
Kentucky record: 21-13

Santa Clara vs. Kentucky Best Prop Bet

Malachi Moreno OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-140)

Freshman big man Malachi Moreno is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game this season, including over two rebounds per game over the offensive glass.

That puts him in a great spot against the Santa Clara Broncos, who rank just 270th in the country in defensive rebound rate this season. Moreno has carved out a starting role for Kentucky, and he’s picked up at least six boards in seven of his last 10 games.

He’s worth a look in this first-round matchup.

Santa Clara vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

This is just the eighth time this season that the Broncos have been set as underdogs, and they are 3-3-1 against the spread in that spot.

Bart Torvik’s matchup predictor actually has the Broncos as favorites in this game, and they’re just seven spots behind the Wildcats in KenPom’s season-long rankings.

Kentucky is 17-17 against the spread this season, but it is an inconsistent offensive team, 98th in effective field goal percentage, outside the top-100 in free throw rate and 38th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Broncos (22nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency) are 52nd in eFG% and 19th in offensive rebounding rate, leading to 56.5 percent shooting from inside the arc.

I think Santa Clara has the firepower to compete with Kentucky, and this line has moved in the Broncos’ favor after sitting at Kentucky -4.5 at one point early in the week.

I wouldn't be shocked if there’s an upset in this No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup.

Pick: Santa Clara +2.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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