TCU Football at #10 Oklahoma State: Betting Preview
Coming hot off their huge upset win over #12 Baylor, the TCU Horned Frogs (4-5, 3-3 Big 12) travel to Stillwater to face #10 Oklahoma State. TCU is a 13-point underdog on the road and the game has an over/under of 54.5 points.
It’d be easy for the public to see Chandler Morris enter for the Frogs and tear up a good Baylor defense to the tune of 461 passing yards and bet TCU. However, “sharp money” has moved TCU from a +12 road underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook to as high as +13.5. Sharp money refers to bettors– often professional– who bet high amounts of money and generally have access to information not known to the public market.
With the line pushing two touchdowns, expect some public money to come in on TCU and move the line down. In this move, bettors should wait until the spread approaches +11 before making a move.
This game could be a reality check for TCU, high off last week’s upset. #10 Oklahoma State fields the nation’s eighth scoring defense (16.4 points per game), including holding Baylor to 14 points and West Virginia to three last week. The defense is excellent at getting off the field on third down, leading the nation in opposing third down conversion rate at a stellar 24.3%.
TCU has been successful on third down in their own right, converting on 49% of their attempts– eighth in the nation. So what’s there not to like? It’s hard to trust Chandler Morris after one inspired game.
The exciting emotional thing to do is bet on TCU, but the sharp move is to bet against an inexperienced quarterback with now a full game’s tape on him against one of the nation’s best defenses.
TCU’s defense has failed them all season long, allowing 7.1 yards per play (124th). Oklahoma State has enough playmakers on their roster, led by Spencer Sanders at quarterback and Jaylen Warren at running back. Warren leads the Big 12 in rushing thus far on the season.
The simple equation is: TCU’s offense isn’t quite good enough to score enough on Oklahoma State’s defense while Oklahoma State’s offense is just good enough to score on TCU’s defense.
The pick: Oklahoma State -13
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