TCU Football - Tori’s Thoughts: Clash in Lubbock Carries More Weight Than Meets the Eye
When the season started, Thursday’s match up between TCU and Texas Tech in Lubbock looked like it could play a role in shaping which teams would make the Big 12 championship.
That’s not the case anymore, but both teams need a win to stay in the hunt for a bowl game. TCU also had plenty to work on during the bye week and it felt like a good time to recognize a couple Horned Frogs with slightly delayed midseason awards.
Not The Expected Scenario
Texas Tech was picked to finish fourth in the preseason Big 12 standings after an 8-5 finish in 2022. Many media outlets predicted the Red Raiders would make the Big 12 title game. TCU sat fifth in the preseason poll. Win total estimates hovered between 7-9, which gave the Horned Frogs outside shot at getting back to the Big 12 title game.
A great storyline for late October, weeknight game in Lubbock. Instead, TCU and Texas Tech are just trying to reach bowl eligibility.
The Red Raiders need three wins in their final four games (TCU, at Kansas, UCF, at Texas) to reach the six-win mark. Opening the season with a double-overtime loss at Wyoming and then dropping a 38-30 home game to then-No. 13 Oregon seemingly set the tone for the entire season.
The quarterback position has become a revolving door as starter Tyler Shough went out with a broken fibula in the Big 12 opener and backup Behren Morton suffered a shoulder injury in the same game. Morton played through it for a couple weeks, but third-stringer Jake Strong took over in the second half against Kansas State on Oct. 14 and started in the loss at BYU on Oct. 21. Behren is expected to start versus TCU.
Running back Tahj Brooks remains a bright spot on offense with 111 rushing yards per game.
Texas Tech’s defense has held two teams (West Virginia and Baylor) below 20 points, is one of the conference’s worst red zone defenses and has the conference’s worst turnover margin (-8).
By almost every measurement, this season has a disappointment for the Red Raiders.
TCU’s season has been a roller coaster. This season has shown how much, among other things, experience, leadership and continuity in personnel matters. From that perspective, this game does carry value. It’s a “must-win” to keep bowl hopes alive, get those additional postseason practices and gain invaluable experience for next season.
What to Watch Over The Next Few Weeks
TCU’s bye week came at the perfect time.
After a 38-point loss at Kansas State, TCU had a laundry list of things it could work on before this Thursday’s date with Texas Tech. It’s impossible to address everything, but there is one thing in particular that needs attention.
Effort is one of the few things a team can control, even if, like TCU, it’s an inexperienced team. Inexperience has contributed to some of the ups and downs the Horned Frogs have had this season, too, but the performance in Manhattan less than 14 days ago raised some questions.
Then, an interview with Kansas State offensive lineman Cooper Bebee came last week only adding to the pile. Bebee said TCU players were on the field laughing while losing by 30 points.
The Horned Frogs had given up by that point. This is by no means representative of TCU’s entire season or every player. And perhaps it was just a one-time thing during an ugly loss. It can’t be completely ignored, though.
Why did things even get to that point? Why had TCU’s effort been flat from the opening snap?
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes did not have answers following the game. No one did. Perhaps the week off helped the Horned Frogs hit the reset button and rediscover the motivation they had just a week earlier in a 33-point win over BYU. That kind of all-out effort in each of the next four games should get the Horned Frogs a win or two.
Keep an eye on TCU’s penalty numbers, too. Penalties have long been said to be an indicator of a team’s discipline level. The Horned Frogs have the third most penalties (52, 6.5 per game) in the Big 12. False starts and illegal procedures penalties on offense have stopped scoring drives while pass interference and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties have aided opponents in scoring.
Those types of miscues are fixable, as Dykes has said a couple times this season, yet they keep happening. Early in the season, penalties, particularly on offense, made some sense as everyone learned to play together. Now, it feels like something else could be going on.
TCU’s locker room culture will be tested during these final four regular season games. Wins are not guaranteed, nor is bowl eligibility. Dykes and the coaching staff must maintain a positive locker room when adversity (like a loss) does hit to prevent things from unraveling and keep the program’s momentum headed in the right direction.
“Just Past the Midseason” Awards
Every year the college football season seems to go faster and faster. The halfway point is usually when midseason awards are awarded and, while that time has already passed, it’s never too late to recognize some of the top performers from the first part of the season.
Offensive MVP: Emani Bailey, Running Back
Last season, Emani Bailey hinted at what he could be posting a Big 12-best 8.1 yards per carry while only touching the ball 31 times. It felt like Bailey would take off in 2023 as the lead back. He absolutely has, averaging 106 yards per game and nearly six yards per carry. Bailey has ecliped the century mark in five games and has two of TCU’s nine rushing touchdowns. His 851 rushing yards rank fourth in the Big 12 and 12th nationally. Bailey’s on pace to finish with 1,277 yards, which would rank eight for a single season at TCU.
Defensive MVP: Namdi Obiazor, Linebacker
The case could be made for a couple different players to have this spot, but converted safety Nambdi Obiazor is my pick. Changing positions at the Division I level is not easy, but he has quickly found a new home at the linebacker position while starting all eight games. Obiazor leads TCU with 65 tackles (fifth in Big 12), is tied for the team lead in sacks with three and has six quarterback hurries. A career-high 13 tackles against Kansas State marked the second time Obiazor tallied double-digit stops this season. He recorded a blocked field goal against Colorado as well, which was TCU’s first blocked field goal since 2021.
Newcomer of Year: John Paul Richardson, Wide Receiver
John Paul Richardson quickly became a go-to target for quarterbacks Chandler Morris and Josh Hoover after joining TCU’s wide receiver room this offseason. The Oklahoma State transfer caught six passes in the season-opener and has since racked up a team-high 30 catches for 420 yards and two touchdowns. During the BYU game, Richardson recorded the first 100-yard receiving game of his career and his second score as a Horned Frog. Richardson, a junior, has also appeared on special teams as a punt returner.
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