Comparing 11-1 Teams and Whether Texas Tech Deserves a 1st-Round Bye
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Heading into Week 14, the Texas Tech Red Raiders were ranked fifth in the College Football Playoff Rankings. A 49-0 win over West Virginia gave Tech an 11-1 record to end the regular season, and with No. 4 Texas A&M's loss to No. 16 Texas, a top-four seed and first-round bye is within reach.
But should the Red Raiders be ranked inside the top four heading into championship weekend? Two 12-0 teams sit atop the rankings — Ohio State and Indiana — and will face off in the Big Ten Football Championship Game. This will undoubtedly shake up the rankings, but until then, how should the six 11-1 Power Four teams be evaluated?
Let's examine the résumés of every one-loss team in the Power Four to determine who deserves a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
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To evaluate the six one-loss Power Four teams, let's start by looking at how their simple résumés stand out, including their most impressive wins and who they lost to.
Team | ESPN FPI | Marquee Wins* | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
BYU | 17.2 (15th) | vs. Utah (ninth) | @ Texas Tech (fifth) |
Georgia | 20.8 (eighth) | vs. Ole Miss (12th) | vs. Alabama (sixth) |
Ole Miss | 18.3 (12th) | @ Oklahoma (16th) | @ Georgia (eighth) |
Oregon | 25.0 (fourth) | vs. USC (11th) | vs. Indiana (second) |
Texas A&M | 18.9 (10th) | @ Notre Dame (third) | @ Texas (13th) |
Texas Tech | 22.0 (fifth) | @ Utah (ninth) | @ Arizona State (43rd) |
*Marquee wins are defined as a top-15 opponent at home, a top-20 opponent at a neutral site, or a top-30 opponent on the road, according to ESPN FPI. Similar to NET rankings in college basketball.
Based on an initial analysis, Texas Tech clearly has the worst loss of all six teams. The game came on the road against Arizona State, a team that has not been viewed favorably this season. However, it can be easily explained away
The Red Raiders' loss can partially be attributed to their starting quarterback's injury. Behren Morton was sidelined, and redshirt freshman Will Hammond started under center. Meanwhile, ASU had both quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordan Tyson against Tech, who have been in and out of the lineup all season due to injuries.
According to the current AP Poll, Texas Tech is ranked fifth behind No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Oregon. A likely explanation could be the strength of wins. Georgia and Texas Tech are the only two teams with multiple wins against teams ranked inside the top 15 of ESPN's FPI, and Oregon is the only team with four "marquee wins," with some strong road performances.
If Texas Tech is held back by its road loss to Arizona State, it can reasonably be ranked behind Georgia and Oregon. Both schools have better losses, coming at home against Alabama and Indiana, respectively.
Behind that trio, the most recent AP Poll ranked Ole Miss sixth and Texas A&M seventh, with BYU filing in at 11th behind three two-loss teams. Given the above information, it is difficult to understand why Texas A&M falls behind Ole Miss, with both a stronger "marquee win" and more "marquee wins."
However, Texas A&M's best wins aside from Notre Dame are a bit shaky. One came on the road against an LSU team that fired head coach Brian Kelly following the loss. The other was against Missouri, which was without its starting quarterback due to injury. This hurts Texas A&M's overall résumé, potentially slotting them behind the other top one-loss teams.
Ole Miss and Texas A&M also have some shaky wins against lower-ranked teams, like scares at home against Washington State and South Carolina, respectively. This could reasonably slot them behind the trio of Georgia, Oregon, and Texas Tech.
Considering these three as the favorites to be ranked as the Nos. 3-5 seeds heading into conference championship weekend, let's take a closer look at the advanced numbers for each team.
Team | FEI | Massey | Sagarin | SP+ | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | No. 6 | No. 4 | No. 8 | No. 6 | 6.0 |
Oregon | No. 3 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 4 | 3.5 |
Texas Tech | No. 5 | No. 9 | No. 5 | No. 3 | 5.5 |
FEI, Massey, Sagarin, and SP+ are advanced data that measure team success and efficiency while accounting for metrics like tempo, adjusting for opponent, and more.
When looking at how several advanced metrics view all three, there is not much that separates each team. Oregon is consistently considered a top-four team. Georgia cleanly averages out at sixth. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has more variance — the Red Raiders are inside the top five of three of the four metrics, though they are not viewed as favorably by Massey Ratings.
Ultimately, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has a difficult decision deciding how to rank the six one-loss teams in the Power Four, but the trio of Georgia, Oregon, and Texas Tech should be right behind the pair of undefeated teams.
Heading into Week 14, Georgia was ranked fourth while Texas Tech was ranked fifth, and Oregon was ranked sixth. With all three teams winning their regular-season finale, there should be no reason to change up the order heading into championship weekend, which could mean all three slide up one spot ahead of a falling Texas A&M team that was ranked third.
However, one final advantage Texas Tech and Georgia have over Oregon is that both teams are playing in their conference title game, allowing them to gain favor with another top win. Even if the advanced metrics favor Oregon over the others, they are on the outside looking in for the Big Ten title game, and that could certainly play a factor in how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee evaluates each team.
Texas Tech will face off with BYU in a rematch of Week 11 on Saturday, Dec. 6, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, at noon ET (11 a.m. local time).
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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