What Does Texas Tech Need in Week 14 to Earn a Big 12 Championship Appearance?
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The 2025 college football regular season is nearing its end. With one week left, the Big 12 championship is still up for grabs, and the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1) have still not formally secured their spot.
What will it take for Texas Tech to secure its first-ever trip to the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas?
Texas Tech Controls Its Own Destiny in the Big 12
For Texas Tech, the path is simple: win and you're in.
The Red Raiders do not need to rely on any outside help in Week 14 as long as they handle their own business. Texas Tech goes on the road to the Mountain State, facing off with the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown, W. Va.
Kick time for Saturday is set ⏰ pic.twitter.com/1uKDsGR3wO
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 23, 2025
The Mountaineers have struggled this season, with a 4-7 record (2-6 in conference action). However, they do have wins against Pitt and Houston and played Arizona State close in Week 12, all teams that have been ranked this season.
However, the Red Raiders have not played teams close this season. Their average margin of victory is 33.8 points per game. This proves that when they win, they win big. West Virginia has lost three games by 20+ points this season, but its last four games have been wins or decided by one score.
If Texas Tech wants to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game, they will do so with a win in Week 14, and they will be the top seed in the conference no matter the outlying outcomes.
Can Texas Tech Still Win the Big 12 With a Loss to West Virginia?
The Red Raiders are dealing with several notable injuries. Quarterback Behren Morton has been banged up all season and is continuing to play through an injury. Running back J'Koby Williams also got banged up against UCF in Week 12, as did offensive lineman Howard Sampson.
If Texas Tech loses in Week 14, they could still advance to the Big 12 Championship Game, but they would need some outside help.
Tech would benefit most from a loss by the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-3, 6-2) against the Arizona Wildcats on Friday, Nov. 28. A loss by ASU would automatically give Texas Tech a bid to the Big 12 Championship Game, even with a Red Raiders loss.
That is because if Texas Tech has two losses and ASU loses to Arizona, the Red Raiders would either be in a multiple-team tiebreaker with Utah and BYU, a two-team tiebreaker with Utah, or the No. 2 seed if Utah loses. Texas Tech would advance in every scenario, given their head-to-head victories over Utah and BYU.
However, a loss against West Virginia and a win by Arizona State would prove problematic. The only teams that could end with two conference losses are BYU, Utah, and Arizona State; Texas Tech beat BYU and Utah but lost to ASU, which prevents the Red Raiders from advancing based on a sweep.
In a two-team tiebreaker with ASU, Texas Tech would lose based on their head-to-head matchup. However, Texas Tech loses based on its record against common opponents if there is a multiple-team tiebreaker with either BYU or Utah, which would be West Virginia.
BYU, Utah, and Arizona State all won against West Virginia, meaning Texas Tech would lose in any tiebreaker scenario with a Red Raiders loss and a Sun Devils victory. This makes Texas Tech's path very clear, as there are only three potential outcomes, with BYU and Utah's results proving irrelevant:
With a win: Texas Tech advances to the Big 12 Championship Game
With a loss and an Arizona State win: Texas Tech is eliminated from the Big 12 Championship Game
With a loss and an Arizona State loss: Texas Tech advances to the Big 12 Championship Game
Texas Tech fans should be glued to their TV on Black Friday, as it could determine their fate in the Big 12.
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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