How Close Are the Texas Longhorns to Missing the March Madness Cut?

Texas men's basketball's March Madness hopes are up in the air as the team awaits Sunday's selection show to find out where it will fall in the tournament.

Texas coach Sean Miller works the sideline against Mississippi during their 2026 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Wednesday, March 11, 2026. | DENNY SIMMONS / THE TENNESSEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The March Madness selection show is tomorrow, and the Texas Longhorns are teetering on the edge of a tournament berth. After seemingly securing a spot in the college basketball postseason, the team has found itself trending downwards among teams projected to make the field.

Just how close will it come for Texas in the selection show? The Longhorns and their fans will have to wait until tomorrow to find out. In the meantime, here is what brought the Longhorns to their place as a team on the edge.

Texas' Path to the Bubble

Oklahoma's Jeff Nwankwo (3) and Texas' Dailyn Swain (3) scramble for a loose ball in the second half of the men's college basketball game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Okla., Saturday Jan. 31, 2026. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to recent bracketology projections from ESPN's Joe Lunardi, Texas is currently on the bubble and would be the last team in the tournament. This would mean the Longhorns would find themselves in a similar position to last season, having to play in the first four bracket before having a chance to play in the round of 64.

Last season, under former head coach Rodney Terry, the Longhorns found themselves sneaking into the first four bracket, facing Xavier. The Musketeers, led by then head coach and current Texas head coach Sean Miller, defeated the Longhorns, taking a spot as an 11 seed in the round of 64.

Miller later joined Texas this past offseason, hoping to bring Texas back to the tournament. A few weeks ago, it looked like Texas had essentially marked its spot in the tournament, projected as one of the last four teams with a bye.

Texas started SEC play 3-5, with all their wins coming against ranked opponents, but four of their five losses came against unranked teams. The Longhorns then won five straight in conference play, all against unranked opponents. After this successful stretch, it seemed Texas would be skipping a bubble game this season.

In the team's last six games, the Longhorns struggled, losing five of those contests. Texas's only win in that stretch came against unranked Texas A&M in a 76-70 victory. Two of the losses came against ranked teams, falling to then No. 7 Florida and No. 20 Arkansas.

The team then ended the regular season with a thrilling overtime loss to Red River Rival Oklahoma, 88-85, and later would lose in the first round of the SEC tournament to Ole Miss.

Now with the selection show taking place tomorrow, Texas will likely find itself on the bubble once again, ironically with Sean Miller now on the Longhorns bench trying to lead the team into the tournament, instead of elimination. Whether they can do so remains to be seen as teams and fans prepare for the madness of March.