Texas Longhorns Trending Down in Latest NCAA Tournament Projections

Texas men's basketball is looking for another berth in March Madness, recently raising its stock after a five-game win streak.

Feb 14, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Sean Miller reacts to play against the Missouri Tigers during the first half of the game at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Men's college basketball nears the end of the regular season, as a few teams teetering on the edge of a berth in March Madness look to make a final push. The Texas Longhorns find themselves to be one of these teams, recently going on a five-game win streak that raised their postseason projections.

Now expected to make the tournament and skip out on being one of the last four teams admitted to March Madness, Texas stock is on the rise.

Where Will Texas Find Itself in March Madness?

Texas' Camden Heide (5) reacts after a 3-point basket in the second half of the men's college basketball game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Okla., Saturday Jan. 31, 2026. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to On3 projections, Texas is predicted to be an 11-seed in March Madness and be amongst the last four teams with a bye. This would mean the Longhorns would not have to play in the First Four bracket as they did last season to be in the tournament.

Last season, after finishing with a 19-16 record, the Longhorns found themselves in the First Four bracket, competing for a spot as an 11-seed. It was in this bracket that Texas, under former head coach Rodney Terry, faced Xavier, which was led by head coach Sean Miller, who would replace Terry at Texas shortly thereafter.

A disappointing finish to a season that certainly had its highs and lows, the Longhorns have seen improvements under Miller. Texas now holds a 17-10 record, going 8-6 in the SEC so far this season. After winning only six conference games last year under Terry, the Longhorns have seen a jump under the team's new head coach.

Despite the positives for Texas as of late, winning five straight games before recently dropping a game to Georgia, the Longhorns didn't start in SEC play as they might have imagined.

Texas started conference play with a 0-2 record, losing to Mississippi State and No. 21 Tennessee. The team then pulled off a pair of upsets over its next two games, defeating No. 13 Alabama and No. 10 Vanderbilt. The Longhorns would subsequently lose three of their next four games.

It was at this point in the season that Texas once again found itself on the bubble and in a similar position to last season. The Longhorns would then win the following five games, all against unranked conference opponents.

Texas now has four games remaining on its schedule, including a pair of matchups against No. 12 Florida and No. 20 Arkansas. If Texas can come out of a tough slate to finish the season with a few wins and perhaps an upset victory, they will likely once again see themselves in March Madness and avoid a play-in game.