What a Path to the Final Four Looks Like for Texas

The Texas Longhorns are entering territory that nobody thought was possible a few weeks ago.

No. 11 seed Texas is the only double-digit seed set to play in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament this week after escaping the First Four with a last-second win over NC State before upsetting No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga in Portland, OR. last week.

The Longhorns are now in the second weekend, meaning two more wins punches Texas' ticket to the Final Four in Indianapolis. But getting there will be far from an easy task, as Texas is set to play No. 2 seed Purdue in San Jose, CA. on Thursday in what will be arguably the toughest test the Longhorns have faced all season.

What a Win vs. Purdue Could Look Like

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith reacts after breaking the record in assists in the NCAA during a NCAA Tournament first round game against the Queens University of Charlotte Royals on Friday, March 20, 2026, at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Purdue boasts the No. 1 offense in the country while Texas has the No. 15 offense, according to KenPom. This game could feature some efficient scoring from both sides.

However, the Longhorns could have an athletic and physical advantage on defense to help limit this offensive production. Dailyn Swain and Tramon Mark provide length and athleticism that could be tough for Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox to deal with. Chendall Weaver also gives Texas an athletic wing defender that makes up for his lack of size with an incredible ability to cover ground combined with quick hands on defense.

All of this could help limit a Purdue offense that's 10th in the country in 3-point percentage (38.8). If the Longhorns can match Purdue's outside production, an upset is well within reach.

On the flip side, the Boilermakers do not have a defender with the size to match up with Swain on defense. At 6-8, 220 pounds, Swain towers over most guards while operating as one of two primary ball handlers for Texas. Purdue will certainly want to bring help when Swain drives to the rim, but his 12 assists to one turnover during the past two games shows he's more than capable of making the right play.

Down low, Texas center Matas Vokietaitis will have another difficult matchup on his hands with an elite frontcourt of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. That said, the Boilers only average 2.9 blocks per game this season, seventh fewest in the Big Ten.

Vokietaitis and Nic Codie will have a major challenge on defense but there's reason to believe the pair could produce similarly to what they were able to do against Gonzaga when they combined for 29 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.

If the Longhorns can upset Purdue, things will hardly get easier.

Arizona or Arkansas

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. drives against High Point Panthers guard Rob Martin in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

In the event that Texas advances to the Elite Eight, No. 1 Arizona or No. 4 Arkansas will be waiting.

The storylines will be plentiful regardless of which team Texas could play. On one hand, Sean Miller would be facing the team he coached for 12 seasons, or the Longhorns could be going up against one of their oldest rivals.

Either way, the Longhorns will have a Herculean challenge on their hands.

In order to beat Arizona, the Longhorns would need to Matas Vokietaitis to have a big game against a fellow elite big man in Motiejus Krivas along with limiting a talented backcourt of Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries.

But if Texas matches up with Arkansas, slowing down star freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. will be arguably the toughest task the Longhorns will be faced with all tournament long.

In February, Arkansas beat Texas 105-85 in Fayetteville. Acuff finished with 28 points and 13 assists while Razorback forward Trevon Brazile also dominated the Longhorns with 28 points, seven rebounds and three blocks.

If the Longhorns can find a way to limit Acuff, Texas will also need to come up with an answer to limit the physicality and athleticism of a frontcourt consisting of Brazile and Malique Ewin.

The only thing standing in the way of Texas and its first Final Four appearance since 2003 are three potential title contenders. But with the momentum the Longhorns have built for themselves in the NCAA Tournament, it's impossible to rule out some more magic just yet.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.