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Arch Manning Isn't the Heisman Favorite at Polymarket
After initially opening as the favorite to win the 2026 Heisman award, Arch Manning is no longer the favorite after Notre Dame QB CJ Carr took over the top spot on the board.
2026-27 Heisman Polymarket Percentages
- CJ Carr 15%
- Arch Manning 12%
- Darian Mensah 9%
- Dante Moore 7%
- Josh Hoover 7%
- Julian Sayin 7%
- Trinidad Chambliss 7%
- Gunner Stockton 5%
- Jeremiah Smith 5%
- Jayden Maiava 4%
Favorite or not, there is still value in Arch to win the Heisman this season with all of the new pieces they surrounded him with, along with the progression of the rest of the offense.
Starting with the receiver room, it could be argued as one of the best in the country. Cam Coleman was the top receiver in the transfer portal out of Auburn. He’s coming off a 708-yard and five-touchdown season with inconsistent play at QB for most of the year. Being paired up with Manning would only unlock both of their potential even more.
The rest of the room is made up of Ryan Wingo, who led the Longhorns in receiving last season with 834 yards, and Emmett Mosley V, who finished with 408 yards, which was the fourth most on the roster behind DeAndre Moore and Parker Livingston, who are no longer on the team.
Should Manning win, he would be the third Heisman winner in school history, joining Ricky Williams (1998) and Earl Campbell (1977), and the first QB from the school to win the award as well.
A Risky Take on Carr
Although favored on Polymarket, the Notre Dame roster did take some hits over the offseason, which will certainly have an impact on how Carr’s season plays out. For starters, several starting receivers from last year, including Malachi Fields, Eli Raridon, and Will Pauling, are leaving over a 1,300-yard hole to fill. Not to mention, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are both off to the NFL.
What the percentages mean
Those looking to bet on Arch Manning and his 12% chance to win the Heisman at the time of writing would see a $78.46 payout on a $10 risk. As for Carr’s 15% chance to win as the favorite, a $10 risk would profit $62.86.
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Sam has over six years of experience in the sports media industry with a focus on sports betting, covering lines, trends, shopping lines, and finding the most obscure betting specials. He joined SI as a part of their sports prediction market coverage. He’s a Florida State grad where he majored in Editing, Writing, and Media. He’s also covered college sports for The Sporting News.
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