Where Texas Longhorns Stand in Latest NCAA Tournament Projections

The Texas Longhorns have been on the NCAA Tournament bubble for the last few weeks. Are they projected to be dancing this March after 24 games?

Texas Longhorns guard Tramon Mark (12) and Texas Longhorns guard Dailyn Swain (3) react to a basket during the last few seconds of the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Moody Center. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

Will the Texas Longhorns be in the big dance this March? They have been on the bubble of several bracket projections after starting the season with a 15–9 record, 6–5 in the SEC. They have had promising stretches and held their own against the best teams on their schedule, going 4–6 in Quad 1 games.

Riding a five-season streak of NCAA Tournament appearances, the Longhorns expect to make the March Madness field every season.

With seven games left in the regular season, have they done enough, or are they on the outside looking in on the latest projections?

Where Are the Texas Longhorns Projected for March Madness?

Texas Longhorns head coach Sean Miller yells to his players during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

With seven games to go, the Longhorns have a solid résumé. With wins over Alabama, Vanderbilt, NC State and Georgia, they have shown they can compete with other NCAA Tournament hopefuls. However, Texas also has a 3–3 record in Quad 2 and 3 games, with losses to Arizona State and Mississippi State.

• AP Top 25: Unranked, as of Feb. 9 (35 teams received votes)
• KenPom: 34th
• NET: 36th
• Torvik: 42nd

Their mixed results have them firmly inside the top 50 of several notable rankings, but with only 37 at-large bids available in the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns need to do what they can to secure a spot.

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, Texas has been firmly placed at the 11th seed for a while. They are one of the “last four in” teams, joining Miami (FL), New Mexico and San Diego State. They are currently projected to play the Aztecs in a First Four game for the 11th seed and were previously projected to play Ohio State, which is now the “first team out."

SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher is in his ninth season with the Aztecs and has a strong March résumé. In the 2023 NCAA Tournament, he took San Diego State to the national championship, breaking school records along the way. It would certainly be no easy matchup for the Longhorns.

Texas Longhorns fans react during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Moody Center. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

Lunardi is not alone in designating Texas as a play-in team. The Longhorns are also playing for the 11th spot in James Fletcher III's latest projection on On3. Facing off with SDSU, Texas is one of the last four teams in the field of 68, alongside the Aztecs, Hurricanes and USC Trojans.

USA Today has Texas as a double-digit seed as well, though without the need to play for its spot. As the No. 10 seed, the at-large Longhorns are projected to face off with the Saint Louis Billikens. Sitting atop the Atlantic 10 Conference, the Billikens are 11–0 in conference play, ranked 18th in the AP Poll and pushing for their first Tournament appearance since 2019.

Likewise, the Longhorns are projected for the 10th seed by CBS Sports, which has them facing Villanova in the first round. The Wildcats are currently third in the Big East but pushing for an at-large bid with an 18–5 record.

Villanova is currently just outside the top 25 in the latest AP Poll and trailing No. 17 St. John’s and No. 6 UConn for the conference lead. Kevin Willard took over as the head coach last March and is trying to re-establish the three-time Tournament champions after a three-season postseason drought.

Texas Longhorns guard Dailyn Swain (3) reacts to a referee call during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Moody Center. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

Heading into a matchup with the Missouri Tigers (16–7, 6–4) on Saturday, Feb. 14, Texas has plenty to prove. As a projected double-digit seed, the Longhorns could be playing in a First Four game for a second season.

With games against LSU, Florida and Arkansas, as well as rematches against Georgia, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, there is plenty of opportunity for Texas to elevate its status before the SEC Tournament. As things stand, though, the final stretch and conference tournament could have a big impact in the Longhorns’ status this March.