How Big of a Season Could Texas Longhorns QB Arch Manning Have in 2026?

High expectations have loomed over Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning since his freshman season. Is 2026 his year to ascend?

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning reacts after running for a touchdown during the second half against the San Jose State Spartans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The NFL draft is in Arch Manning’s future. How early he will be selected and what year he will enter remain to be determined, but the path was set for him the moment he set foot on campus in Austin, Texas.

As the former No. 1 recruit in his class, expectations have been grand for Manning — unfair, even. His family name precedes him, and even a promising 2025 season felt like a disappointment.

Heading into 2026, he carries momentum. A strong finish to his redshirt sophomore season could propel him forward, though offseason surgery has complicated his development over the spring and summer. When fall comes, what could be the expectation for the Longhorns' highly touted quarterback?

How Good Could Arch Manning Be in 2026?

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning looks on before the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

There are plenty of reasons to expect Manning to have his best season to date. He spent his first two seasons developing behind the scenes while fellow five-star quarterback recruit Quinn Ewers led the team. This incubation period has helped Manning refine his skills while avoiding the development of bad habits.

However, he lacked live, on-field action, aside from select plays where Texas leveraged his athleticism in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He did start two games in 2024, but 2025 was his first time on the field as the leader of the offense.

Over time, this development has paid off. Manning recovered from a slow start and was among the top quarterbacks in the country during the second half of the season. From Weeks 7–14, Manning was fourth in the SEC in PFF passing grade (83.0); that rose to third after Week 9 (85.6).

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning bites into a turkey leg with the help of linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith and ESPN reporter Alyssa Lang after a game at Camping World Stadium. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

He completed 62.1% of his throws, with 2,012 passing yards and 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions in his final eight games, including the bowl win over Michigan. He also ran for 239 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and five touchdowns.

Extrapolated over the course of a 12-game regular season, Manning’s stats would be 3,018 passing yards, 358.5 rushing yards, 31.5 total touchdowns and just three interceptions. This does not include any theoretical postseason games.

Weeks	Passing Y/G	Rushing Y/G	Total Touchdowns	Interceptions
Weeks 1–6	230.2	32.0	16	5
Weeks 7–14 + Bowl Game	251.5	29.9	21	2

Texas added weapons on offense, like running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers and wide receiver Cam Coleman. If Manning can maintain his form, the sky is the limit for him and the Longhorns' offense.

The Longhorns failed to reach the College Football Playoff in 2025, ending a two-season streak of appearances. Manning watched behind the scenes as Ewers won 21 games in two seasons, cementing himself among the winningest quarterbacks in program history. He is tied for fourth (27) with Sam Ehlinger.

Texas quarterbacks Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers talk during the team's first spring practice of 2023 at the Frank Denius Fields. | Aaron E. Martinez / USA TODAY NETWORK

Could Mannning statistically contend with Ewers’ best season? The latter’s best numbers include 33 total touchdowns in 14 games in 2024, as well as 3,400+ yards in 2023 and 2024. Manning had 37 total touchdowns in 2025 and over 3,100 passing yards.

While winning will likely be the top priority for Manning and the Longhorns, he could contend for the best quarterback season of the decade. The last Texas quarterback honored as an All-American was Colt McCoy in 2008. Vince Young (2005) is the only other honoree under center since the ‘70s.

Season	Quarterback	Passing Yards	Rushing Yards	Total TDs-INTs
2005	Vince Young	3,036	1,050	38–10
2008	Colt McCoy	3,859	561	45–8
2025	Arch Manning	3,163	399	37–7

Manning’s season was impressive, but it was still far from the greatest season of any Texas quarterback since the turn of the century. Manning’s upside is obvious, and it is not unrealistic to expect that he could contend for All-American recognition in 2026.

To be remembered among the best in burnt orange, though, will require Manning to win and contend for a national title. The College Football Playoff provides a unique opportunity to accumulate stats through extra games, and a deep run could help Manning achieve some impressive numbers.

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