The Worst Case Scenario For the 2026 Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns are preparing for an all-in season, with major roster turnover over the offseason and quarterback Arch Manning's potential last season on the horizon by the time the season comes to a close.

Texas entered the 2025 season as the No. 1-ranked preseason team in the nation, then left it without a playoff berth to support that claim. With a season of upsets and failure to win against top competitors like Georgia and Ohio State, the disappointment of 2025 was equivalent to the hype that preceded it.

The Longhorns are again in the limelight as preseason favorites, with SEC Championship hopes, desperation for a playoff berth and Heisman expectations. However, if Texas fails to live up to its full potential like last year, it will suffer that same disappointment a second year in a row.

For The Longhorns, The Worst Case Is A Repeat

Texas quarterback Arch Manning. — Nov 15, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Daylen Everette (6) tackles Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) in the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

In 2026, Texas faces all three teams that resulted in losses in 2025: Ohio State as a season-opener, Florida and Georgia. Added to the mix are two rivalries against ranked teams, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, as well as Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU, which are predicted to be contenders this season.

Looking at roster talent and stats on paper, the Longhorns should be slated to easily beat most of these teams and emerge with at least 10 wins to build a good enough resume for a college football playoff run, if not the SEC Championship which they are favored to win at the moment.

However, the same thing was said last year.

It's important to note that the preseason hype seemed to have an adverse effect on the Longhorns, especially in Manning's first year at the helm in the wake of much anticipation during his first two years sitting behind former Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers before he was drafted by Miami in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Manning is much better prepared to handle the tough schedule headed his way in 2026, and has dangerous offensive weapons beside him. The question is whether the Longhorns will be able to live up to the potential that the talent on their roster advertises, and finally deliver on the expectations that will follow them as long as they have that kind of roster.

In the worst case, the Longhorns face losses to several of the ranked teams they play, especially those they face away. LSU in Death Valley will be a tight contest, especially against head coach Lane Kiffin's defense, and Ohio State and Georgia will be difficult to beat after three losses in three seasons to each. Wins against those two teams will be hard-fought comeback stories, and it's a toss-up whether Texas steps up to the plate this year.

Not making the College Football Playoff, let alone the SEC Championship, will be a devastating blow to the Longhorns and may pull them from the high-tier contender status they've enjoyed ever since joining the SEC.

If they aren't able to put the pieces together this time, though, it may be the reality.

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