How Much of a Threat is Oklahoma to the Texas Longhorns in 2026?

The Texas Longhorns’ defense overwhelmed Oklahoma last season. Can a similar result be expected in 2026?

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer reacts during the first quarter against the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Red River Rivalry is one of the premier matchups every season. An unranked Texas Longhorns squad upset the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners in 2025 in what proved to be a get-right game after a brutal loss to Florida the week before.

Texas is retooled and ready to contend for a title in 2026, but Oklahoma is coming off a College Football Playoff appearance and brought back most of its top players.

Could the Longhorns extend their win streak to three, or are the Sooners a threat to disrupt Texas’s postseason pursuits?

John Mateer Injury Defined 2025 Matchup vs. Texas

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer rushes as Texas Longhorns defensive backs Jaylon Guilbeau and Michael Taaffe defend in the first half of the Red River Rivalry college football game between the Sooners and the Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Heading into last season’s matchup, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was gunning for a potential Heisman Trophy. After transferring from Washington State, Mateer was red-hot to begin his career with the Sooners.

Oklahoma was 4–0, and Mateer was averaging over 300 passing yards and nearly 50 rushing yards per game. He scored 11 total touchdowns while completing 67.4% of his passes.

However, Mateer suffered a hand injury and underwent surgery on Sept. 24, 2025, returning in time for the Red River Rivalry on Oct. 11. He did not seem to be 100% and had his worst game of the season. He recorded a PFF grade of 29.5, the lowest single-game grade of his career.

Texas pressured him 17 times, tied for the most he faced all season in a single game. Mateer did not handle the pressure well; he was sacked five times, conceding his second-worst pressure-to-sack rate of the season. He also threw three and had six turnover-worthy plays, double any other game.

Texas Longhorns defensive back Malik Muhammad celebrates an interception intended for Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Deion Burks in the first half of the Red River Rivalry college football game between the Sooners and the Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas won 23–6 behind a masterclass performance by their defense and timely special teams plays. Texas wide receiver Ryan Niblett had a 75-yard punt return in the fourth quarter.

It was far from a perfect game for Texas. Kicker Mason Shipley missed a pair of field goals, and Oklahoma’s talented defense forced the Longhorns to struggle for every yard. Texas averaged 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 3.9 yards per rush attempt, scoring just once offensively.

Fortunately for Texas, Oklahoma’s offense was even more stagnant. The Sooners averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt and 1.6 yards per rush attempt. They also converted just six of their 17 third downs.

Oklahoma Could Test Texas in 2026

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning looks to throw a pass in the first half of the Red River Rivalry college football game between the Sooners and the Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oklahoma has a talented roster that was heavily hampered by Mateer’s injury. The Sooners’ defense was among the best in college football, ranking second in adjusted EPA per play, according to GameOnPaper. The Sooners’ defense is also among the most disruptive, ranking third in havoc rate, which measures how often a team forces a negative play.

Their strong defensive line is anchored by defensive tackles David Stone and Jayden Jackson. However, the line lost defensive end R Mason Thomas and defensive tackle Gracen Halton. The Sooners are anticipating one or two defensive ends to step up as disruptors alongside Taylor Wein.

However, Oklahoma has some key returners. Owen Heinicke has emerged as a top linebacker and is back after a lengthy eligibility pursuit. Defensive backs Courtland Guillory, Eli Bowen and Peyton Bowen are important pieces

Texas spent the 2026 offseason focused on improving offensively, adding players such as wide receiver Cam Coleman, offensive tackle Melvin Siani and running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers. The Longhorns should have a more potent offense than they did last season, when they scored one touchdown against the Sooners.

Texas Longhorns defensive back Jelani McDonald tackles Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III during the first quarter at the Cotton Bowl. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The biggest question is how Oklahoma’s offense will fare. It was an anomalous performance, with the Sooners recording a season-low 3.7 yards per play and three total turnovers.

Mateer and wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III form a dynamic offensive duo, and Oklahoma added pass-catcher Parker Livingstone, who played for Texas last season. This will add a fascinating dynamic to this season’s Red River Rivalry.

Last season, Texas’s win helped the team get back on track after a brutal loss to Florida. This season, both Oklahoma and Texas will be coming off bye weeks following games against top SEC opponents. The Sooners face Georgia, and the Longhorns face Tennessee. Both teams will be well-prepared for the rivalry game.

The Red River Rivalry will be a taste of College Football Playoff-level competition. Despite winning the last two games by a +48 margin, Oklahoma will be far from an easy out for Texas. In six of the last nine seasons, both teams were ranked entering their matchup. It could be another ranked-on-ranked contest with SEC-swaying implications early into conference play.

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