Three Reasonable Expectations for Texas Longhorns Season Opener

The time for talk is finally over as the Texas Longhorns will officially kick off the season on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT versus Texas State. It’s a quick Week 1 tune-up for the real opening challenge of the season against Ohio State in Week 2.

Yet, just because the Longhorns are playing a proverbial “cupcake” to start the season, fans shouldn't go into the season opener without expectations. After all, following another long offseason, one that didn’t begin after another College Football Playoff appearance, Texas fans will undoubtedly be excited to turn the page on a new season.

But it’s important to keep those expectations in line with realism. Even so, the Longhorns could very well score as many points as possible against Texas State; history says Steve Sarkisian isn’t in the business of running up the scoreboards.

So, with that in mind, here are three realistic expectations for Texas in Week 1.

No. 1: Limited Aerial Show

Nov 28, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws a pass during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Looking back at the last three times the Longhorns opened the season against an unranked opponent, they’ve never been one to air it completely out. As much as Sarkisian and Co. want to see the unit get into a rhythm and play football, they will still be playing some things close to the vest.

The game plan will likely also call for them to build a big lead as soon as possible, then turn it over to the backups to finish the drill. This also means milking the clock and running the ball, and the Longhorns want to win and get out of the game healthy.

In the three season openers versus unranked opponents, which only leaves out 2025 Ohio State and 2021 Louisiana, the Longhorns' starting quarterback averaged 248.33 passing yards in those games. Meanwhile, they only averaged 27 passing attempts in those games.

So, even though Texas added a weapon at wide receiver in Cam Coleman, don’t be surprised if the Longhorns don’t come out throwing a ton.

No. 2: Split Carries

Raleek brown — Nov 22, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Jeff Sims (2) hands off to running back Raleek Brown (3) against the Colorado Buffaloes in the second quarter at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In that same vein, don’t expect the Longhorns to come out of the gate with a running back receiving more than 15 carries.

In those same three games, no running back for Texas ever got more than 12 carries. Meanwhile, none also ended up breaking the 100-yard rushing milestone.

Although the offseason emphasis has remained on improving the ground game following the transfer portal additions of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, the opening contest may be more about load management than about the new duo putting on a show.

No. 3: Not a Ton of Sacks

Oct 11, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns defensive end Colin Simmons (1) kneels on the field during the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For all the talk about the Will Muschamp defense and specifically the talented defensive line, the true measure of its pass rush may not show right away. And it won’t be because the Longhorns don’t have the talent, or even because Texas State can't put up a fight on the offensive line.

Rather, the reasonable expectations for the Texas pass rush will be driven more by the Bobcats' expected game plan. Fans should expect to see Texas State’s offense try to get the ball out quickly, whether via screens or the quick passing game, in hopes of making plays in space rather than waiting for things to develop downfield.

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