What Wins and What Loses the Game For Texas vs. Texas State

The Texas Longhorns will roll into the 2026 season with lofty expectations and outside noise about how the season should play out. The Longhorns look to get back into the College Football Playoff after just missing out a season ago.

Texas will look to get off to the right foot with its 2026 schedule filled with daunting challenges, throughout the year. The season features a heavyweight clash against the Ohio State Buckeyes in week two of the season and for the first time battling through a nine game SEC schedule.

The road ahead begins in the season opener as the Longhorns welcome a team from just down the road, the Texas State Bobcats, who make the trip from San Marcos to Austin. While the Longhorns will be heavily favored, games aren't won on paper, as the Bobcats will look for the upset. Here's a look at two ways the Longhorns can secure the win and one way a shocking upset could happen.

What Wins

Not Overlooking the Bobcats

Texas State Bobcats head coach G. J. Kinne before the game between Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas State Bobcats. | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

The Longhorns will obviously head into their season opener with plenty of confidence, as they will be heavily favored and predicted to take care of the Bobcats easily. However, overconfidence can and has gotten the team in trouble and handed losses by teams that should've beaten.

Texas should get back on the field and play its game, no matter who the opponent on the other sideline is. Steve Sarkisian should devise his game plan like any other game, not overlooking a Bobcats team that will undoubtedly come into Darrell K. Royal Stadium playing with house money.

Get Arch Manning Rolling

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws a pass during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The lofty expectations head into the 2026 season and largely fall on the back of returning quarterback Arch Manning. And while the added pressure might not be fair, it's not unwarranted, as Manning looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the country down the stretch of last season.

Getting Manning off to the right start will be crucial, not only because the Longhorns face the Buckeyes in week two, but if last year proved anything, a slow start is hard to build off of. Texas also has plenty of new weapons around Manning, and getting them going against the Bobcats will be the key to coming out with a win.

What Loses

Allowing the Texas State Offense to Get Hot

Arizona State Sun Devils defensive lineman Jacob Rich Kongaika blocks Texas State Bobcats quarterback Brad Jackson. | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

The Bobcats' offense was high-flying a year ago, being one of the best units not just in the Sun Belt but in the country. Texas State ranked No. 1 in total offense in the Sun Belt, averaging 472.8 yards per game, and was the No. 5 offense in the country for the same metric.

Texas State returns several key pieces from its offense in 2025, with the most important returning being the signal caller, quarterback Brad Jackson. The quarterback passed for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns, as well as rushing for 744 yards and 17 touchdowns.

The Longhorns' secondary will also have to be tasked with slowing down two returning 1,000-yard wide receivers in Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. The Bobcats have the offense that can fuel and upset, and it will be the Longhorns' defense's job to disrupt their production.

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