Three Games UCF Must Win To Punch NCAA Tournament Ticket
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With less than a month of regular season remaining, the UCF Knights men's basketball team has found itself in a slightly precarious postseason position.
Following three straight losses, with their most recent one coming with a blown double-digit lead at home to West Virginia, coach Johnny Dawkins and his team find themselves on the bubble of the projected NCAA Tournament field of ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 15, 2026
So, with six games and a conference tournament left to go before Selection Sunday, here is every game that the Knights need to win if they want to keep the hopes of their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2019 alive:
1. TCU (Feb. 17, 7 p.m.)
First and foremost, the Knights need to end this losing streak. While losing to a TCU squad just four spots ahead of them in the NET ranking may not be the end of the world in terms of national standing, it does risk a build-up of negative momentum.
The Knights have their longest road trip of the season ahead of them after this game, and going into it with a win would be much better than a four-game losing streak. A win would also keep the Knights at 8th in the Big 12 standings, a spot it would surrender to the Horned Frogs with a loss.
2. @ Utah (Feb. 21, 9 p.m.)
Of all the games on this list, this road trip to face Utah is the biggest must-win out of all of them.
In the basement of the Big 12 standings with Kansas State and the lowest-ranked team in the conference in the NET Rankings at 126th, the Utes present the Knights with their best opportunity to get one more road win before the end of the season.
However, irrespective of the game being on the road, a loss to the Utes would be UCF's worst by a wide margin, so much so that it could put them on the outside looking in going down the stretch.
3. vs. Oklahoma State (Mar. 3, 7 p.m.)
While it would not be as damaging to its reputation as a loss to Utah would be, teams need to defend their home court in the Big 12 to have a shot at an NCAA Tournament berth. So, after losing their Big 12 road opener to Oklahoma State back on Jan. 6, the Knights need to do just that when the Cowboys come to Orlando almost two months later on Mar. 3.
A loss to the Cowboys, currently 72nd in the NET, at home would be the Knights' second Quad 2 loss of the season, joining their most recent one against West Virginia. It would also mean that a team ranked nearly thirty spots behind UCF managed to beat them twice, including on the road. That's not a good look for a team trying to make its case for an NCAA Tournament berth.
On the other end, a win could show the team's improvement from the team that lost to the Cowboys back in January. At the very least, it would mean that Saturday's West Virginia loss would likely be solidified as the team's worst Quad 2 loss of the season, and by extension, their worst loss of the season in terms of how the NET rankings categorizes games.
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Bryson Turner is a sports journalist who covers UCF Athletics. Turner has contributed to the Black and Gold Banneret, the home for UCF Athletics on SB Nation. He has called the Orlando area home since the age of 8 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees from UCF.
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