ESPN's FPI Prediction Gives UCF Fans Some Hope This Season
In this story:
With less than one week left before the UCF Knights kick off this season, it's time for some predictions.
Humans may have doubts about the Knights, but the computers are a little more optimistic.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) updated its rankings for this preseason, which also allowed it to predict game-by-game results for the entire season. ESPN defines the FPI as "a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
The FPI preseason rankings are based on data points from previous seasons, including prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure, according to ESPN.
So, according to the FPI, UCF will finish 7-5 (4-5 Big 12), enough for bowl eligibility.
The model ranks the Knights 41st in the FBS and ninth in the Big 12. It also projects the Knights have an 85.4 percent chance to get the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility and a 4.2 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
So, here is how the FPI predicts UCF's season to go game-by-game:
Date | Opponent | ESPN FPI Rank | FPI Proj. Result | UCF's % Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug. 28 | vs. Jacksonville State | 105 | Win | 89.6% |
Sep. 6 | vs. North Carolina A&T | N/A | Win | 99.0% |
Sep. 20 | vs. North Carolina | 59 | Win | 74.5% |
Sep. 27 | @ #17 Kansas State | 18 | Loss | 23.2% |
Oct. 4 | vs. Kansas | 26 | Loss | 49.7% |
Oct. 11 | @ Cincinnati | 53 | Win | 50.5% |
Oct. 18 | vs. West Virginia | 56 | Win | 66.9% |
Nov. 1 | @ Baylor | 28 | Loss | 37.8% |
Nov. 7 | vs. Houston | 70 | Win | 78.2% |
Nov. 15 | @ #23 Texas Tech | 35 | Loss | 36.8% |
Nov. 22 | vs. Oklahoma State | 61 | Win | 73.4% |
Nov. 29 | @ BYU | 22 | Loss | 27.3% |
1. The Slam Dunks
The FPI has the Knights rated as heavy to moderate favorites in six games this season, all of which are home games, including all three non-conference matchups.
The highlight here is a 74.5 percent chance for UCF to beat a Bill Belichick-led North Carolina on Sep. 20.
2. The Toss-Ups
Early on in the Knights' conference slate, they'll encounter a pair of back-to-back games that the FPI only gives the narrowest advantage to the winning team.
It gives the Knights a 49.7 percent chance to beat Kansas at home and a 50.5 percent chance to defeat Cincinnati on the road. Based on these percentages, these are make-or-break games for the Knights' season, considering that if they lose both, the FPI predicts they would be 3-3 (0-3 Big 12), thus not ideal for building momentum.
3. The Long Shots
The FPI has UCF as obvious underdogs in four Big 12 away games this season, all of which are against opponents ranked (or close to it) in major polls.
The FPI's two longest shots for the Knights book-end the conference slate, with a 23.2 percent chance to upset No. 17 Kansas State in Manhattan and a 27.3 percent chance to take down BYU in Provo.
-
The Knights kick off this season for real on Aug. 28 at 7 p.m. against Jacksonville State.
Catch up on more UCF News below:
College Football Writer Projects Gloomy Outlook For UCF Knights
UCF Has Reportedly Named A Starting Quarterback
UCF Defensive Back Gives The Skinny On Quarterback Cam Fancher
Bryson Turner is a sports journalist who covers UCF Athletics. Turner has contributed to the Black and Gold Banneret, the home for UCF Athletics on SB Nation. He has called the Orlando area home since the age of 8 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees from UCF.
Follow itsBrysonTurner