Bye-Week Projections: UNC’s Record Through the Last Eight Games

There are eight games left for the UNC football team, or in other words, Bill Belichick's first season in college as a head coach, one that has not reached expectations at all, nowhere near the way Chapel Thrill Game Day presents itself. The Tar Heels are 2-2 and are entering their first bye week of the season. Here are the rest of its games on schedule, starting with the Clemson Tigers on Saturday, October 4.

Clemson (home) - October 4

California (road) - October 17

Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick with TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes after the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Virginia (home) - October 25

Syracuse (road) - October 31

Stanford (home) - November 8

Wake Forest (road) - November 15

Duke (home) - November 22

NC State (road) - November 29

All things considered, with the way North Carolina has played and its opponents on the schedule above, I project it to finish the season with an overall record of 4-8. Two wins over Stanford and NC State, and then losses to Clemson, California, Virginia, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Duke. Belichick's squad has not shown enough convincing evidence that it can finish above .500.

North Carolina’s Struggles Show When Facing Tough Opponents

The outings against TCU and UCF, two Big 12 schools, exposed UNC's struggles greatly. UNC does not have much when it comes to defending the pass or the run game when playing teams with a higher skill level than schools such as Charlotte and Richmond, respectively. And the double-digit deficit losses further prove this explanation. On the offensive side, the Tar Heels do not have a recipe, besides the small batches of running back Demon June being explosive on run plays.

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Demon June (35) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Quarterback Gio Lopez has not had the best start to the season either, and his backup, Max Johnson, who was the starter last year, has had shining moments when allowed to play (both of Johnson's appearances came during the TCU and UCF games — throwing a touchdown in each of them.

It should not be a question that Belichick needs to make a change, or if not, a tweak in the offensive scheme that works to the skills of Lopez. Offensive Coordinator Freddie Kitchens needs to dig deeper, too.

If UNC finishes with a record worse than its 2024 campaign, then it will be questioned whether or not Mack Brown should have been fired, or perhaps, hiring an eight-time Super Bowl champion at the tail end of his coaching career was the right call.

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