Where North Carolina Sits in Joe Lunardi's Updated Bracketology

The Men's NCAA college basketball tournament will be here before we know it. It is early February, but in just a few weeks, the pressure will be immense, as teams make last-ditch efforts to improve their spot in the field. Conference tournaments could go a long way in that regard, but specific matchups in the regular season are also pivotal.

On Saturday, the North Carolina Tar Heels defeated the Duke Blue Devils 71-68 after Seth Trimble hit the game-winning three-point shot with less than a second remaining. The Tar Heels never led until that moment.

On Friday, ESPN's Bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his latest bracketology, which had the Tar Heels in an interesting spot heading into the historical matchup against the Blue Devils.

North Carolina's Spot in Latest Bracketology

Feb 2, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis reacts in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Lunardi has the Tar Heels slotted as a five seed in the Midwest region. It is an improvement for North Carolina, which was listed as a six-seed on Tuesday. Losing three of four games in January was a major reason for the Tar Heels' recent slip.

However, North Carolina has won five straight games, including victories over Virginia and Duke. Nonetheless, the Tar Heels' move up in the seeding is an optimistic sign that the team is moving in the right direction at the most important time of the college basketball season.

Break Down of the Midwest

Jan 17, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (left) talks with forward Caleb Wilson (8) during the second half against the California Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

As mentioned, North Carolina finds itself in the Midwest region, which, based on the projected landscape of the other three regions, the Tar Heels could be in the most daunting section of the bracket.

The top four seeds in this region include Michigan (1), Iowa State (2), Florida (3), and Texas Tech (4). Michigan and Iowa State have been two of the most consistent teams this season, combining for a 42-3 record, with the Wolverines taking on the Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Florida and Texas Tech are each shaky, but at their best, both teams can make some serious noise in March.

How North Carolina Would Fare in Opening Two Rounds

Feb 2, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward JT Toppin (15) reacts to a call in the second half of the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at United Supermarkets Arena. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

The matchups between the No. 5 seeds and No. 12 seeds are the most popular upset games in March Madness. At least one 12 seed has won its first-round game in 34 of the last 40 tournaments. In Lunardi's projection, North Carolina would be facing Belmont, which ranks sixth in the country in three-point percentage (40.3). That has been something the Tar Heels have been susceptible against.

Assuming the favored teams win, North Carolina would then play Texas Tech. This would be an intriguing matchup, as the Red Raiders are extremely top-heavy and are reliant on forward JT Toppin (21.8 points per game) and guard Christian Anderson (19.6 points per game).

North Carolina's ability to withstand those two would be the key factor in deciphering the winner of that potential matchup.

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