Where UNC Stands in Updated Bracketology

The North Carolina Tar Heels have been diminished, as Henri Veesaar and Caleb Wilson have missed the last two games due to injury. Their absences exposed the Tar Heels in the 82-58 loss against the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Tuesday night.

Earlier that day, ESPN's Bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his latest bracket projections for this year's NCAA tournament. Here is where he had North Carolina, but as briefly mentioned, the Tar Heels had not played yet.

Lunardi Lists North Carolina as a Six Seed

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Maliq Brown (6) and guards Caleb Foster (1) and Dame Sarr (7) and North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar (13) and guard Seth Trimble (7) fight for the ball in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

In Lunardi's latest bracket projections, the Tar Heels' position did change at all, as they remain along the same seed line in the same region. Additionally, North Carolina's path would be extremely difficult, as the top five seeds in order are Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Alabama, and St. John's. The Tar Heels would most likely face the Jayhawks in the second round, which would be unfavorable matchup, as Kansas is playing its best basketball.

The two teams faced in November at the Dean E. Smith Center, and North Carolina defeated Kansas 87-74, with Caleb Wilson totaling 24 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and four steals while shooting 9-of-11 and 6-of-9 from free throw line.

Unfortunately, the freshman phenom is dealing with a hand fracture and does not have a timetable for return, according to the program.

Feb 10, 2026; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes forward Shelton Henderson (7) drives to the basket against North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) during the first half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

"University of North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson is out with a fracture in his left hand, an injury he suffered in the first half of Tuesday's game at Miami," the university reported. "X-rays taken during the game were negative, and he returned to play in the second half vs. the Hurricanes, but additional imaging done in Chapel Hill revealed the fracture. The evaluation process is ongoing to determine the timetable for Wilson's return."

Wilson is expected to return at some point, but there is a solid chance he plays through the injury during the tournament and delaying potential surgery.

How Far Can the Tar Heels Fall?

Feb 14, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) with the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers guard Nojus Indrusaitis (25) defends in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

With Veesaar's status still up in the air and Wilson potentially out the remainder of the regular season, North Carolina could continue to slip. Based on the Tar Heels' remaining schedule, which consists of Duke, Louisville, and Clemson, they could slip to a seven or eight seed.

The conference tournament in early March will be monumental for North Carolina's momentum heading into the NCAA tournament. There may not be another formidable team in the ACC that needs a stronger performance than the Tar Heels.

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