The Odds of UNC Defeating Clemson, Keys to Victory

North Carolina faces Clemson in a pivotal ACC matchup. Here’s a breakdown of Celmson's weaknesses and what UNC must do to win.

Nov 18, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Will Shipley (1) runs the ball for a 33 yard touchdown against North Carolina Tar Heels linebacker Cedric Gray (33) during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium. | Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

North Carolina will take on Clemson on Saturday at noon at Kenan Stadium in the 61st meeting between the two original members of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).

Both teams are coming off a bye week that followed a loss. Carolina (2-2) suffered an embarrassing 34-9 defeat to UCF two weeks ago. The following week, UCF lost by two touchdowns to a 1-3 Kansas State team.

Clemson, meanwhile, holds a 1-3 record for the first time since 2004. The Tigers’ last game was a 34-20 loss to Syracuse on September 20. Now, Clemson is hoping for a bounce-back win against the Tar Heels.

History hasn’t been kind to Carolina when it comes to this rivalry. Clemson leads the all-time series 40-19-1, and since the start of the century, the Tar Heels have only defeated Clemson twice. UNC’s last win over the Tigers was a 21-16 victory on October 10, 2010.

Do the Tar Heels Have a Chance?

Clemson defensive linemen get ready for North Caroline to snap the ball during the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina Saturday, September 28, 2019. | Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Tar Heels do have a chance—perhaps an even better one now than before the season began. Clemson is a team still searching for its identity and is currently in turmoil following an uncharacteristic 1-3 start.

Quarterback Cade Klubnik has struggled, completing just under 60% of his passes for 996 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. His challenges are even more apparent given that he’s throwing to one of the nation’s top receiving corps, led by Bryant Wesco, who has 24 receptions for 389 yards and five touchdowns.

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) and running back Adam Randall (8) | GREENVILLE NEWS-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Although Adam Randall has been effective with 57 carries for 343 yards and five touchdowns, Clemson lacks another reliable running back, which is reflected in their modest average of 116.3 rushing yards per game.

While Clemson’s front seven has held its own, the secondary has struggled, allowing 240.3 passing yards per game—ranking 93rd nationally.

Despite Clemson’s struggles, its roster is still much more talented than Carolina’s. On defense alone, the Tigers boast three likely first-round draft picks: defensive tackle Peter Woods, defensive end T.J. Woods, and cornerback Aveion Terrell.

The Keys to the Game

Head Coach Bill Belichick; Sept. 13, 2025 | Jackson McCurdy, North Carolina Tar Heels On SI

Carolina may be a two-touchdown underdog, but there are several key things the Tar Heels can do to challenge Clemson.

1. Keep the QB Upright

North Carolina’s offensive line faces its toughest test of the season against Clemson’s defensive front. Defensive end Will Heldt, who is making a case for ACC Newcomer of the Year, leads the Tigers with six tackles for loss and three sacks—both team highs. On the opposite side, Parker has contributed two sacks.

Clemson defensive end Will Heldt (13) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Saturday, September 6, 2025. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On the interior, the Tigers have three stawlwarts in DeMonte Capehart, Sephiylan Green and Woods.

The good news for North Carolina is that the offensive line has performed well in pass protection, despite injuries. The Tar Heels are ranked 52nd nationally in sacks allowed, and Pro Football Focus gives them the third-best pass-blocking grade in the country at 84.0. With Austin Blaske set to return, the unit should become even more solid.

2. Move the Chains

Sep 20, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) warms up before the game against the UCF Knights at the Bounce House Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Offensive struggles have plagued North Carolina all season. The Tar Heels are averaging just 265.3 yards per game, which ranks 132nd out of 134 FBS teams and last among Power Four schools. They have been unable to sustain drives or find any consistent rhythm on offense.

North Carolina ranks 125th in time of possession and 132nd in total plays per game, averaging just 56 snaps. The Tar Heels are 107th nationally in third-down conversions and next-to-last in first downs, with just 55 on the season.

If the Tar Heels can't move the ball down the field, it will be another long day at Kenan Stadium.

3. Put Pressure on Cade Klubnik

Sep 6, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte 49ers quarterback Conner Harrell (15) is tackled by North Carolina Tar Heels linebacker Andrew Simpson (2) for a sack during the second half at Jerry Richardson Stadium. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Like many quarterbacks, Klubnik has struggled under pressure, and the numbers reflect it.

According to Pro Football Focus, Klubnik has completed 67 of 100 attempts (67%) for 594 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions when the pocket is clean. When under pressure, his completion rate drops to 45%, with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

When Klubnik isn’t blitzed, he has completed 62.2% of his passes for 588 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. When blitzed, those numbers drop to 56.7% for 408 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

If North Carolina can put pressure on Klubnik, its chances of earning its first win over Clemson in 15 years become much more realistic.