UNC Schedule Prediction: September Slate

Ladies and gentlemen, we are close to dancing in September and love is changing the minds of pretenders.

While love may be fleeting, the bond North Carolina fans share with their Tar Heels will not fade. That passion will be on display when the season kicks off on Labor Day. But it will be tested, as September presents a difficult slate. The Tar Heels open at home against TCU and close the month with a trip to the Bounce House in Orlando.

Here are my predictions for each game in the month of September.

Week 1: TCU, Sept. 1

Oct 26, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

All eyes will be on this game, literally. UNC will take on TCU in the only game that will be on television on Labor Day to kick off the Belichick era in Chapel Hill. While TCU might not be a brand program such as Alabama or Ohio State, its name still holds weight.

Since 2000, the Horned Frogs have a 220-95 overall record, 13 10-win seasons, 10 11-win seasons, six AP Top 10 finishes, five BCS/New Year Six/CFP bowl games and a national runner-up finish in 2022.

TCU is coming off a 9-4 season in 2024 and will be in the Big 12 title hunt once again with Josh Hoover in his third year as the starting quarterback. The offensive line will return three starters from last season, as well as Cade Bennett, who returns after a season-ending injury last season. Defensively, TCU has a strong front seven and it has an experienced defensive backfield led by Bud Clark.

While this game will be close, I think the difference maker in this one is chemistry, as TCU has more returning lettermen than North Carolina does. The Tar Heels have more than 70 new players, with more than 40 added after the spring.

The Belichick era starts off with a loss.

Result: Loss (0-1)

Week 2: @Charlotte, Sept. 6

North Carolina makes the short drive down I-40 West to face Charlotte on Sept. 6 at Jerry Richardson Stadium. The Tar Heels won the first meeting between the programs 38-20, but both rosters look drastically different with just nine combined starters returning.

Charlotte enters a transition year after firing Biff Poggi and hiring Tim Albin, a two-time MAC Coach of the Year who led Ohio to its first league title since 1968. The 49ers return only three starters and ranked near the bottom nationally on both sides of the ball last season. Expectations remain low for Albin’s first year.

Of the three games against FBS opponents in Carolina's non-conference schedule, the game against the 49ers should be the easiest to win.

Result: Win (1-1)

Week 2: Richmond, Sept. 13

While everyone talks about conference realighnment at the FBS level, Richmond shook up realignment at the FBS level after it ended its 39-year membership of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA). The Spiders will be joining the Patriot League starting this season.

The Spiders are one of the better teams at the FCS level and have finished in the Top 25 the last three seasons. The game against Carolina will be Richmond's third road game in a row. Given the talent disparity along with the Richmond's road fatigue, I got the Tar Heels winning by at least four scores.

Result: Win (2-1)

Week 4: @UCF, Sept. 20

Jul 8, 2025; Frisco, TX, USA; UCF head coach Scott Frost addresses the media during 2025 Big 12 Football Media Days at The Star. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

UCF is in a transition period after firing Gus Malzahn following a 4-8 record in its second season in the Big 12. The Knights brought back Scott Frost, who led the program to a self-proclaimed national championship in 2017. That season, UCF went 13-0 and upset Auburn in the Peach Bowl.

The Knights should be better this fall — history supports that. Since 2004, the Knights have had just four losing seasons, including two winless ones. Each time, they bounced back and reached the postseason. In 2005, 2007 and 2012, UCF advanced to the Conference USA Championship Game after posting records of 0-11 in 2004 and 4-8 and 5-7 in 2006 and 2011, respectively.

UCF’s home stadium, Acrisure Bounce House — yes, that is in fact its name — is one of the most difficult venues in college football. The Knights are 85-30 at home since the stadium opened in 2007. During their time in Conference USA and the American Athletic Conference, they hosted and won four conference championship games.

However, I think the Tar Heels get out of Orlando safely with a few bumps and bruises.