What The Metrics Say About UNC's New Perimeter Defense

North Carolina has many newcomers who can score. Terrence Brown comes to Carolina after averaging 19.9 points per game last season at Utah, and Cameron Fens (if eligible) and Neo Avdalas both averaged double-digit points at their previous schools.

What North Carolina doesn’t have is an obvious replacement for Seth Trimble, who built a defensive identity in his four seasons with the program. That said, how good of a defender was Trimble? Can North Carolina find an upgrade in that department?

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; VCU Rams guard Terrence Hill Jr. (6) dribbles the ball against North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) in the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The early answer, at least according to one metric, is yes.

Defensive RAPM

When plotting the North Carolina newcomers' stats last season, one of the most helpful metrics is called “Defensive RAPM,” developed by CBBAnalytics. RAPM stands for Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus. In simple terms, this metric estimates how much a player improves his team’s defense when he is on the court, while accounting for all other players on the court.

#UNC Newcomers graphed based on their Defensive RAPM

In simple terms, this metric estimates how much a player improves his team’s defense when he is on the court, while accounting for all other players on the court. pic.twitter.com/xVa9JGfOih
— Kade Nix (@bykadenix) September 10, 2026

The number measures a player's impact on his team's points allowed per 100 possessions relative to the Division I average.

This is helpful because we may see that a certain player allows a low points-per-possession rate and assume he’s a good defender. In reality, he may be surrounded by four excellent defenders. Defensive RAPM helps to eliminate that flaw by accounting for the impact on other players on the court.

Feb 28, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) with the ball in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Using this metric, we found that Neo Avdalas has by far the best metrics on the team. Among all Division I players with at least 10 games and 10 minutes per game, Avdalas ranks 68th out of 3,924 players.

Some context would be important here. Virginia Tech, Avdalas's former school, finished 19-13 and 8-10 in the conference last season, ranking 74th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency via KenPom. Avdalas started and appeared in 31 of the Hokies' 32 games, and played 31.7 minutes per night. This matters because we know he was not a situational defender, but he was on the floor for nearly everything the Hokies did on defense.

Mar 10, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) goes to the basket against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That is a significant number, especially given the type of player Avdalas is expected to be for the Tar Heels. He doesn’t come to Chapel Hill with the same scoring reputation or shot volume that Terrence Brown may have, but his Defensive RAPM suggests that he could be a valuable player for North Carolina on both ends of the floor.

In fact, all other North Carolina newcomers rank outside of the top 600 players, meaning Avdalas has a massive gap between him and the rest of the pack. However, that gap is worth taking a second look at, because it includes Cameron Fens. The seven-foot graduate center from South Dakota was named First Team All-Defense in the Summit League last season.

Nov 5, 2025; Omaha, Nebraska, USA; South Dakota Coyotes center Cameron Fens (54) drives against Creighton Bluejays forward Isaac Traudt (41) during the first half at CHI Health Center Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Fens profiles as the exact kind of player you would expect to become a defensive leader on your team, especially as a rim protector. However, RAPM disagrees, and it makes sense why. Mid-major samples are much noisier, and RAPM accounts for the lower level of competition in the Summit League.

That’s where things get muddy. In terms of visible success, such as steal percentage, transfer Angelo Brizzi (Buffalo) ranks highest among the transfers with an impressive 3.6%, followed by Matt Able with 3.3%.

Avdalas, in comparison, ranks near last with only 1.1%.

Why Steals Don't Tell the Whole Story

Mar 7, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers center Johann GrŸnloh (17) passes the ball s Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) defends in the second half at John Paul Jones Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If steals are one of the easiest ways to measure defensive production from the box score, why does Avdalas have such a strong defensive RAPM despite totaling such a low steal percentage?

This is exactly why defensive RAPM can be useful. Steals only tell us about a specific defensive event. This means a player can have a high steal percentage because he is aggressive in passing lanes, but may not be consistently making his team better defensively.

Feb 14, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Lajae Jones (10) drives with the ball as Virginia Tech Hokies guard Neoklis Avdalas (17) defends during the second half at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The supporting numbers point in the same direction. Avdalas fouled only 1.3 times per game last season across 31.7 minutes per game, which is roughly 1.65 per 40 minutes. That was the lowest rate on Virginia Tech’s roster among players with at least 10 games played and 10 minutes per game.

He also blocked shots at a rate of 1.9%, which seems low, but is decently impressive for a perimeter player. Low steals with low fouls point to a player who is disciplined and stays attached to his assignment without reaching or gambling.

Apr 4, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone yells direction during a game against the Golden State Warriors in the third period at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That could be particularly valuable for North Carolina. With so much of the attention on who can score the ball, having a player who can provide great defense without needing to generate turnovers could give Michael Malone yet another versatile piece to work with.

How Does Seth Trimble Compare?

That leads us to look at Seth Trimble.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) on defense against Clemson Tigers guard Ace Buckner (21) during the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Trimble built his reputation as an elite defender by diving for loose balls, picking up players full court, fighting over screens, and disrupting ball handlers. However, RAPM would suggest he was actually far below average. Trimble comes charted in with a -2.0 RAPM, the lowest of any Tar Heel last season, with the guidelines mentioned earlier.

If you’re thinking that RAPM could potentially be a bit flawed, there’s data to suggest it may not be. I mapped out every All-Defensive Player from the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, and the Big East, and every single player fell on the right half of the graph, landing with an above-average RAPM.

Interesting find UNC fans.

On this graph is every All-Defensive player from the SEC, B1G, B12, ACC and Big East last season.

Every single one of them fall on the right side of the graph above average.

The outlier is Seth Trimble. pic.twitter.com/Sey0X13i1f
— Kade Nix (@bykadenix) September 10, 2026

In the middle of all those players? Neo Avdalas with a RAPM of 3.6.

Of course, defensive RAPM has limitations, as with just about every other metric. A single college season is a relatively small sample for a number built on lineup data. Avdalas ranked 68th nationally last season, but that doesn’t mean he was, or will be, the 68th best defensive player in college basketball next season. He is entering a brand-new system and may play a different role.

What It Means for Carolina

Trimble spent four seasons at North Carolina as a symbol of defensive identity, but his numbers don't match the reputation he built. He finished 2.0 points per 100 possessions below the Division I average. Avdalas arrives at plus 3.6, in the same range as the All-Defensive selections from every major conference.

UYN — Mar 28, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone during the second quarter against the Utah Jazz at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That's a swing of more than five points per 100 possessions at a position North Carolina was supposed to be worse at this season.

If Avdalas’ defensive RAPM is any indication of his game, North Carolina may have a very impactful defender on their roster. Malone has built a roster that can score, and there’s no doubt about that. In doing so, he may also have added a perimeter defender nobody was looking for.

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