Three Stats That Define UNC’s Season Under Belichick

When Bill Belichick arrived in Chapel Hill, the spotlight was bright. But four games into his first collegiate head-coaching gig, the numbers tell a rougher story. Lots of potential and gaps that need closing.

The Tar Heels are adjusting to a coach whose résumé is built on NFL discipline and defensive identity, but the college game comes with arguably faster tempos, more complex spreads, and pressure. Fans expected a cultural shift immediately, yet the transition has proven more complex than imagined.

Below are three stats that cut to the core of UNC’s identity in 2025-26 and how they reflect the early Belichick experiment.

1. Scoring Struggles

New York Giants offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens in the first half. The Giants defeat the Eagles, 13-7, at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, in East Rutherford. Nyg Vs Phi | Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Offensively, the Tar Heels are plugging through a slow start. Over four games, they’ve scored just 84 total points, which puts them near the bottom third nationally. Belichick inherited a program used to faster pacing, but even with play calling from Freddie Kitchens, UNC has struggled to put together consistent drives.

The bumps have come especially against stronger competition, where the offense has failed to cross the 20-point threshold. In their opener vs TCU, for example, UNC managed just 14 points in a 48–14 loss, the most points Belichick has ever given up in any game he’s coached.

2. Passing Efficiency

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Max Johnson (14) passes before the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Belichick’s first QB decision, naming Gio Lopez as the starter over Max Johnson, has been under scrutiny. Through four games, the passing game has produced 430 yards on 67 attempts (~6.4 yards per attempt) with a 3–3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

That ratio is problematic in tight games, where turnovers kill critical drives. While Lopez has shown mobility and accuracy at times, UNC has lacked explosive vertical connections and consistency under pressure.

3. Bright Light Failures

Sep 13, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Gio Lopez (7) with wide receiver Javarius Green (9) before the game at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

UNC’s two victories over Charlotte and Richmond have come against lower-tier or mid-major competition. But their two losses have been lopsided in 48–14 to TCU and 34–9 to UCF.

In neither defeat was Carolina truly a late competitor, as neither game saw a credible comeback attempt or momentum shift. That suggests a gap between beating manageable opponents and competing in the upper tier, a gap Belichick will have to close fast if he hopes to make UNC a legitimate ACC threat.

North Carolina football coach Bill Belichick watches the Tabor Academy vs. Milton Academy game on Friday, Sept. 26, 2025. | Marc Vasconcellos/The Enterprise / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Final Take

Through these stats, the picture is… still blurry. Belichick’s status is undeniable, but his first season in college is proving rocky. The offense must find rhythm and reduce turnovers. The defense and situational coaching must tighten in high-leverage moments. If UNC can turn a few of those blowouts into competitive battles, or even wins, the foundation for a turnaround could begin.

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