Alijah Arenas' Return Shifts USC's National Championship Odds

With the return of Alijah Arenas, the USC Trojans have the potential to be among the most underrated teams in the Big Ten next season.

Dec 21, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) warms up prior to the game against the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Entering their third season under coach Eric Musselman, the USC Trojans men’s basketball team has the opportunity to be a dangerous team in the Big Ten as star freshman guard Alijah Arenas announced his decision to withdraw from the 2026 NBA Draft and return to Los Angeles.

After recovering from a brutal car accident and a torn meniscus, Arenas made his Trojans debut in January. In his 14 games played last season for USC, Arenas averaged 14.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. 

Dec 21, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) warms up prior to the game against the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Now returning for his sophomore season at full strength, Arenas, the son of former NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas, looks to guide USC to its first NCAA Tournament appearance in four seasons. Following Arenas' decision to return to USC, here’s a look at the Trojans updated national championship odds for the 2026-27 college basketball season. 

USC Trojans Updated National Championship Odds With Alijah Arenas' Return

Mar 7, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) shoots the ball against the UCLA Bruins in the second half at the Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With the return of Arenas, the Trojans currently have +3500 odds to win the national championship in Detroit, Michigan, next season, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. USC has never won a national championship in its program history, and its last Final Four appearance came in 1954. 

Three Big Ten teams rank ahead of the Trojans in the best national championship odds for next season. The defending national champions, the Michigan Wolverines, lead the way with +700 odds to repeat. The Illinois Fighting Illini (+1600) and Michigan State Spartans (+2500) are the two teams that follow. 

Two teams are tied with the Trojans at +3500 to win the national championship: the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Vanderbilt Commodores, both of which fell in the Round of 32 this past season. 

Why Alijah Arenas' Return Is Massive For Trojans

Dec 21, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) warms up prior to the game against the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Arenas' return to USC is massive, especially for a Trojans backcourt that struggled with depth and injuries last season. One of those guards who was injured was Rodney Rice, who, after six games, suffered a season-ending right shoulder injury in the Trojans' 83-81 win over the Seton Hall Pirates in the Maui Invitational Semifinal last November. 

Before suffering his season-ending right shoulder injury, Rice was one of USC’s top scorers. In the six games he played for the Trojans, Rice averaged 20.3 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game. 

With both returning to USC, Rice and Arenas have the potential to form one of the most dominant backcourts in the Big Ten next season, which will play a role in their pursuit to make the tournament.

Nov 14, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Rodney Rice (1) shoots a free throw during the first half of the Hall of Fame Series game against the Illinois State Redbirds at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

After a strong 12-1 start to last season, USC finished the year by winning only six more games, including ending on an eight-game losing streak. USC finished the 2025-26 college basketball season with an 18-14 overall record and went 7-13 in Big Ten play. 

While an improvement from the first season of Musselman’s USC tenure, Trojan fans hope that year three features success after March.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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