Michigan State vs. USC Trojans NCAA Tournament prediction: Spartans' 3-point shooting will be key

Who's ready for March Madness?

The USC Trojans, a No. 10 seed, have been placed in the East Region and will take on the No. 7 Michigan State Spartans in a first-round game in Columbus, Ohio on Friday at 9:15 a.m. PST. The winner will advance to play the winner of No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Vermont on Sunday.

Earlier this week, we made the case for how USC can beat Michigan State and vice versa.

Now it's time to predict a winner. Drum roll, please ...

PREDICTION

Michigan State 68, USC 64

Rationale: We don't love this matchup for the Trojans for a few reasons. For starters, Michigan State is a more experienced team, which we think will make a big difference.

Senior guard Tyson Walker leads Michigan State scoring 14.6 points per game and senior forward Joey Hauser averages 14.2 points per game. Both shoot over 40% from the three-point range. In addition to Walker and Hauser, three other MSU players were big contributors to the Spartans' NCAA Tournament team last year.

After USC found out its NCAA Tournament opponent, head coach Andy Enfield told reporters: "This team is a little unique because with [just] two experienced players, Drew [Peterson] and Boogie [Ellis], coming into the year, we didn't know what to expect. They improved dramatically and we're proud of them."

The Trojans have struggled to close games this season whether it's been dealing with late pressure or missing free throws down the stretch. If Friday's game is tight with under two minutes to play, we think Michigan State will have the advantage.

Additionally, the Spartans shoot three-pointers at the fourth-best clip in the country and defend the three-point line very well on the other end. When USC's offense has broken down at the end of the shot clock this season, Ellis has consistently hit clutch three-pointers. Relying on him to do that against MSU won't be a recipe for success.

Another reason we like the Spartans is because Michigan State takes better care of the ball than USC. The Spartans' 1.37 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 31st in the country. USC's 1.08 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 137th.