AP Top 25 Poll Prediction After Multiple Upsets, Narrow Escapes

The No. 18 USC Trojans avoided the upset against Washington on Saturday, but how will their AP Top 25 Poll ranking look?

Oct 3, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer arrives before the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The No. 18 USC Trojans were one of a few programs that survived upset scares over the weekend, and the start of conference play has already created some intriguging matchups with key results. With outside noise growing louder around USC coach Lincoln Riley, the Trojans may actually climb up the AP Top 25 Poll upon its release on Sunday.

In the Big Ten, No. 14 Iowa fell to No. 5 Ohio State, shuffling the pecking order once again in the conference with teams like the Trojans and the Hawkeyes fighting for positioning behind the Buckeyes, No. 6 Indiana, and No. 15 Oregon.

Oct 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch shake hands after the game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Minnesota beat Michigan at home as the rest of the conference sorts itself out, and USC survived a key test against Washington. Can the Trojans assert themselves towards the top of the Big Ten in upcoming games against Penn State and Wisconsin, a team that could join the AP Top 25 Poll sooner than later?

In the SEC, the biggest surprise of Saturday's games came in No. 25 Missouri's upset of No. 8 Florida. How far will the Gators fall, and how many spots will the Tigers climb in the latest edition of the AP Top 25 Poll? Meanwhile, No. 7 Alabama pulled away from No. 16 Mississippi State, likely forcing the Bulldogs to move down rankings.

AP Top 25 Poll Projection

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Alabama
7. Indiana
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
10. BYU
11. Texas Tech
12. Utah
13. Missouri
14. Oregon
15. Tennessee
16. USC
17. Oklahoma State
18. Houston
19. Iowa
20. Florida
21. SMU
22. Boise State
23. UCLA
24. Mississippi State
25. Kentucky

This article will be updated when the AP Poll is released at approximately 11 a.m. PT.

Outside of Mississippi State and Florida dropping after losses, how will AP Poll voters few teams like USC that avoided upset bids? 

No. 10 BYU beat TCU by one possession, and No. 12 Texas Tech struggled against Colorado in a game that felt closer than the final score indicated. No. 21 SMU also struggled to put away Boston College at home, potentially hurting the Mustangs' case of moving up.

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day is pictured during a Big Ten college football game against the Iowa Hawkeyes Oct. 3, 2026 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

On the other hand, how will Ohio State be treated after picking up a top-15 in on the road? Will the Buckeyes move ahead of a less-tested team like No. 3 Notre Dame? The rankings should shift the most at the early parts in the season as voters and fans alike learn more about each team as they face tougher opponents in more difficult environments as conference play carries on.

Similarly, will No. 7 Alabama be rewarded for its dismantling of Mississippi State on the road? The Crimson Tide are currently ranked behind the Indiana Hoosiers, but that could very well change come Sunday's release of the newest rankings.

AP Top 25 Poll Week 5

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Miami
5. Ohio State
6. Indiana
7. Alabama
8. Florida
9. Ole Misss
10. BYU
11. LSU
12. Texas Tech
13. Utah
14. Iowa
15. Oregon
16. Mississippi State
17. Tennessee
18. USC
19. Oklahoma State
20. Houston
21. SMU
22. Boise State
23. UCLA
24. Kentucky
25. Missouri

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