USC Trojans Bowl Projection Changes Following Signature Win Over Penn State

Where do the No. 19 USC Trojans fall in the latest bowl projections entering the bye week and their signature 31-23 win over the Penn State Nittany Lions?

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Coach Lincoln Riley and the No. 19 USC Trojans defied the odds on Saturday night, securing their most signature win of the season with a 31-23 road victory over the Penn State Nittany Lions in a hostile environment 

With the win, the Trojans are now 6-1 and are still in a great position to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history. Now set to enter their first of two bye weeks this season, here’s a look at the Trojans' postseason outlook according to ESPN’s bowl projections.

USC Trojans Bowl Projection Entering Bye Week

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While the Trojans are still out of the 12-team CFP bracket, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura have mixed projections on which bowl game USC will play in at the end of the season. 

Schlabach projects the Trojans will play the Pittsburgh Panthers in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28. Bonagura, however, went in a different direction, projecting the Trojans to play the Oklahoma Sooners in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31. 

The Trojans last appeared in the Las Vegas Bowl, where they defeated the Texas A&M Aggies 35-31 in a thriller. Riley facing his former team, the Sooners would create intriguing storylines, making it one of the most exciting bowl games to watch. 

Sep 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley walks off the field after the game against the Oregon Ducks at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Sooners are currently 3-2 and coming off a thrilling 34-31 upset win over the previously No. 1-ranked Texas Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry. The Trojans have also appeared in the Holiday Bowl under Riley in former quarterback Caleb Williams' final season. While he did not appear in that game, Miller Moss did, throwing for 372 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception on 23-of-33 passes as USC beat 42-28 on Dec. 27, 2023.

If the Trojans were to play Pittsburgh, it would be their first matchup against the Panthers since 1974. The Trojans lead the all-time series 6-4, as Pittsburgh’s last win over USC came in 1961. Pittsburgh is currently 5-1 after suffering their first loss of the season, losing 21-17 to the North Carolina Tar Heels at home.

How USC Trojans Make College Football Playoff

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) looks to throw a pass during the first quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While making a bowl game is great for any college football program, this is not what a premier program like USC wants. Even with a 6-1 record, the pressure remains on Riley in his fifth season to return the Trojans to championship glory and make the CFP. 

With five games remaining on their regular season schedule, the Trojans' three games against ranked opponents will determine their CFP goals, which include games with the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (Oct. 31), No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (Nov. 14), and No. 21 UCLA Bruins (Nov. 28). 

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Trojans have a 17 percent chance to make the CFP. While winning out would help the Trojans potentially earn a spot in the CFP and the Big Ten championship in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Dec. 5, USC could afford one loss and still make a case to earn a spot with two losses. An upset win over either the Buckeyes or Hoosiers would be massive for the Trojans CFP resume.  

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley looks on from the sideline during the first quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Trojans get the Buckeyes at home, but will play the Hoosiers and Bruins on the road. After the bye week, the Trojans will also face another road test in primetime against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. 

Entering their road matchup against the Trojans crosstown rival, the Bruins, coach Luke Fickell’s Badgers are 4-1 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play with conference wins over the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan State Spartans.

The Trojans and Badgers will kick off at Camp Randall Stadium at 4:30 p.m. PT, with the game broadcast on NBC. Betting odds haven’t been released for the Trojans matchup against the Badgers, but ESPN Analytics gives the Trojans a 54.9 percent chance to beat the Badgers on Oct. 24.

The Trojans and Badgers last met in 2024 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, a game USC won 38-21. USC leads the all-time series over Wisconsin 7-1, with the Badgers' only win coming in the 2015 Holiday Bowl.

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