USC Trojans' Latest Bowl Projection Continues to Raise Doubt

The No. 16 USC Trojans continue to be projected out of the latest bowl projections.

Aug 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the San Jose State Spartans in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Despite moving up a few slots in the latest AP Top 25 rankings, it seems the No. 16 USC Trojans are still considered to be left out of the College Football Playoffs. In the latest edition of ESPN’s bowl projections, little has changed about where the Trojans can possibly land after the regular season.

The Trojans are coming off a much-needed bye week after a seven-game span. So far, they have managed to have a 6-1 record, with a sole loss at the hands of coach Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks.

Sep 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning (left) shakes hands with USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley after the game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

But a bounce-back win against Washington and a road test against Penn State have brought back a sense of optimism for coach Lincoln Riley and his Trojan team. With just five games remaining in their regular season, here is where they landed in Week 7’s ESPN bowl projections.

USC Bowl Prediction After the Bye Week

The Trojans have once again been left out of the CFP 12-team bracket by ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach. Last week, Schlabach listed the Trojans to play Pittsburg at the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28, while Bonagura predicted them to face Oklahoma in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31.

It’s pretty much the same story this week as the duo continues to stand by their predictions that the Trojans will land in the Holiday Bowl and the Las Vegas Bowl, respectively. There is one exception this week, however.

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

 Schlabach has swapped Pittsburgh as the Trojans' projected opponent for the Holiday Bowl with the No. 17 Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

This is likely due to the Panthers’ recent troubles in the ACC and Wake Forest’s recent success. Pittsburgh has lost back-to-back conference games after enjoying a 5-0 start to the season.

Wake Forest, meanwhile, is 6-1 with just one loss this season, against No. 1 Miami earlier in the year. Three of their last four games have also been blowouts.

If the Trojans do end up facing Wake Forest later in the season, it’ll be the first time ever the two programs face off against each other.

USC’s Upcoming Schedule

Oct 10, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Romero Ison (18) celebrates following the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

USC fans shouldn’t be too concerned about these projections, however. The Trojans still have five games remaining in their regular season, with three of them ranked in the top ten.

Those three opponents include No. 3 Ohio State, No. 6 Indiana, and No. 9 UCLA.

The Trojans will be traveling to Madison to play Wisconsin before coming back home on Halloween night to host Ohio State. While the Buckeyes game will be arguably USC’s biggest test, the recent loss of Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin to a shoulder injury has brought optimism for a Trojan upset.

Freshman Luke Fahey will likely make his first career start against the Trojans on Halloween. The game will also mark the fourth time this season that NBC broadcasts a USC game. The primetime slot should also provide the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with a rowdy crowd, albeit the holiday celebrations could possibly affect attendance.

USC will then have its second bye week after the Ohio State game before traveling to Bloomington to face the defending champions, Indiana. They’ll close out the year with games against Maryland and crosstown rivals UCLA. This year’s edition of the Crosstown Rivalry brings a lot more than bragging rights, with CFP implications likely to be a factor.

Sep 4, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches against the Fresno State Bulldogs in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Trojans can scrape by the five-game stretch with at least just one loss, it is likely they’ll be in the conversation for the CFP. Riley is eager more than ever to prove doubters wrong that he can carry the program to its first-ever playoff appearance in school history.

But Riley and company will first need to take care of business against Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday night.  

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