USC Trojans, Lincoln Riley Have Two Clear Paths for Rest of the Season

USC suffered an unacceptable 41-27 loss to Oregon this past Saturday.

It’s the biggest headline coming out of a loaded week 4 college football slate. Coach Lincoln Riley’s seat is red hot. The little support the Trojans head coach still had from the fan base is gone, and it’s quickly fading from the administration.

Path One: Disaster

USC Trojans Recruiting Class Lincoln Riley Gary Patterson Oregon Ducks Jayden Maiava Ohio State Indiana Fire Buyout Big Ten — Aug 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley head coach Lincoln Riley Lincoln Riley Riley enters the field before the game against the San José State Spartans at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

So, what happens to USC as the season turns to the month of October?

This team can crumble under Riley as they did in 2023. After starting the season 6-0, the Trojans dropped five of their last six games. The lone win came in a 50-49 shootout against Cal. That path will end up USC searching for a new coach, perhaps before the season even ends.

Riley has a hefty buyout. Various numbers have ranged from $60-72 million. The Trojans just opened their brand-new $225 million dollar facility and are paying anywhere from $35-40 million for its roster. That's all before the large number they would pay for a new coach. It's a lot of cost, but that won't save Riley.

Make no mistake, it's one USC will certainly pay if Riley has another embarrassing showing like the one he had against the Ducks and continues having the program trending in the wrong direction over the next month. If the university and the boosters want him to be gone, he will be.

Path Two: Rebound

Or they can learn from what transpired inside the Coliseum this past weekend, grow as a team, go on a run that shocks the country and officially quiet some of the noise once and for all from a national standpoint.

“If we're as good as we think we can be, and we have the character and competitiveness that I think we have in that locker room, then we'll handle this the right way,” Riley said after Saturday night’s loss. “That's what I told them. If we're as good as we think we can be, then we will flip this. We will turn this as a positive. We will learn. We will grow together. That’s what these seasons are for us, right?

“Whether you're right now in that locker room celebrating like crazy because we had this great come from behind win, or you're in there and everybody’s sad. Your response week in and week out is everything, and that's what we got to do as a team. We have to respond, and I'm very confident in the people in that room that that will happen.”

A change doesn’t happen from words. Nothing Riley said on Saturday night or during his weekly media appearances on Trojans Live Monday or during his media availability on Tuesday can change the on-field play.

It’s nothing we haven’t heard over and over again for the past four and a half years, and frankly it’s something no one cares to hear anymore. If anything, it brings more embarrassment because of the lack of accountability or statements made about how close the team was in these marquee games.

This is a results-based business, and right now, USC has fallen way short of what the standard is for the program under Riley.

And the change doesn’t come from following the same approach they have week after week for years as they did so heading into the Oregon game.

A lot of attention is on the coaching staff and rightfully so. Everything starts with Riley, who has failed the program. But it also comes down to the players. Playing with pride every Saturday, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. How do the players respond with the entire country writing them off and with the program being under fire?

Contrary to what some of these performances over the first five games have suggested, there is a ton of talent on the Trojans roster. It's young and has flaws at certain positions, but overall, it's still the most talented roster Riley has had at Southern Cal.

Heading into the season, the players talked about the brotherhood that had been built in the locker room. Numerous veterans described it as the closest locker room they had ever been part of. The players have Does that show up during these defining moments for the program?

Riley hasn't lost his locker room. That's important to note. And those players and coaches will ride with Riley to the end. But the results have to show itself on Saturday's.

USC Trojans Tough Road Ahead

The schedule doesn’t get an easier for Southern Cal with Big Ten playing ramping up.

USC will host Washington on Saturday, Oct. 3 with the hopes of getting the season back on track. They travel to Penn State on Oct. 10 and for a team that struggles mightily as soon as they leave they Los Angeles, all eyes will be on Riley’s squad.

A matchup against Ohio State on Oct. 31 and a trip to Indiana, the defending national champions, on Nov. 14 will define the 2026 season.

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