Best College Football Picks and Predictions Today for Week 5 (Bet Penn State to Cover vs. Northwestern)

Week 5 of the college football season has begun, and we have a trio of games set to take place tonight, including a Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Northwestern.

If you're looking for some bets for tonight's action, you're in the right place. Let's dive into my favorite for each of the three games.

Best College Football Bets Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Pittsburgh +3 (-108) vs. Virginia Tech
Liberty -7.5 (-105) vs. Delaware
Penn State -2.5 (-125) vs. Northwestern

Pitt vs. Virginia Tech Best Bet

Defense is going to be the difference-maker in this game. Pittsburgh's defense has been fantastic to start the season, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA per play, 30th in opponent yards per play, and 14th in opponent success rate. By comparison, Virginia Tech's defense ranks 104th, 110th, and 125th in those three defensive metrics.

While there's a lot I like about the Hokies' offense, their defensive numbers compared to Pittsburgh's make me concerned about their ability to cover the spread as 3.5-point favorites.

I'll take the points with the Panthers.

Pick: Pitt +3 (-108)

Liberty vs. Delaware Best Bet

Liberty's numbers have been far better than Delaware's to start the season. They enter Week 4 ranking 42nd in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 12th in Net Success Rate. By comparison, Delaware ranks near the worst in college football in those metrics, coming in at 123rd and 122nd in them.

That's enough for me to trust in the Flames to win and cover this 7.5-point spread.

Pick: Liberty -7.5 (-105)

Penn State vs. Northwestern Best Bet

As much as I like Northwestern this season, this is the ultimate buy-low, sell-high spot. Bettors are going to run to bet on Northwestern after they almost upset the defending champions, while bettors will be scared to lay points on a Nittany Lions team that just suffered an embarrassing loss to the Wisconsin Badgers.

With that aside, let's remember that Penn State ranks 25th in net adjusted EPA per play, and their defense has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per play this season at 3.9. Their defense can carry them to a win and cover as long as the offense doesn't implode for the second straight week.

Pick: Penn State -2.5 (-125)

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