Does Utah still have a chance to win Big 12 after loss to BYU?

Examining the Utes' conference championship and College Football Playoff hopes following their setback to their rivals

Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham looks on during the second half of a game against the BYU Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

There was a lot more than just in-state bragging rights at stake when Utah and BYU took the field in last Saturday's pivotal Holy War matchup at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

Both teams had opportunities to improve their respective stature on a national level and keep pace in a crowded Big 12 conference that saw some shakeup at the top after the odds-on favorite to win the league went down for the first time this season.

As the Utes stumbled to the finish line, the Cougars hung on for a 24-21 victory over their rival to remain undefeated and ascend up the league standings with Texas Tech's loss to Arizona State. Utah, meanwhile, fell into a cluster of teams in the middle of the pack with two losses in conference play, diminishing Kyle Whittingham and company's hopes of capturing the Big 12 title and subsequently a spot in the College Football Playoff.

With five more games left in the regular season, there's still plenty of football to be played. However, the Utes will need to close out strong and receive help from some other teams around the league if they're to clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game as either the first or (more likely) second place team in the league standings.

What needs to happen for Utes to make Big 12 title game

Help from some of the league's top teams

"Help" in this case means the teams near the top of the Big 12 standings would need to lose once (or even twice) more for the Utes to even have a shot at making the conference championship game.

Should Texas Tech regain its footing after its setback to Arizona State, then Utah would need BYU to drop three of its final five regular season games — the Utes won't have the head-to-head tiebreaker at the end of the season — and get some assistance with an additional loss for the Sun Devils and Houston, both of which stand at 3-1 in conference play.

The Cougars' remaining schedule includes at Iowa State (Oct. 25), at Texas Tech (Nov. 8), home against TCU (Nov. 15), at Cincinnati (Nov. 22) and home against UCF. Per ESPN FPI, they have a 5% chance of beating all five of those teams to finish the regular season undefeated.

The Nov. 8 matchup between Texas Tech and BYU will certainly be one to track, as it could have serious postseason implications for both squads. If the Red Raiders come out victorious, they could be in position to finish league play with only one loss, since the rest of their schedule consists of three matchups against bottom dwellers Oklahoma State (Oct. 25), UCF (Nov. 15) and at West Virginia (Nov. 29), in addition to a road game at Kansas State (Nov. 1).

Utah fans should be rooting alongside Texas Tech fans the rest of the way; otherwise, a second loss for the Red Raiders could put them in a tiebreaker scenario with other two-loss teams like the Utes. Since Utah lost the head-to-head matchup back in September, that wouldn't be a favorable position to be in.

The other undefeated team in league play, Cincinnati, would also need to lose at least two more games, including its Nov. 1 contest at Utah, in order for the Utes to have a chance at playing for the Big 12 title. If the Bearcats, who are home for three of their final five games of the regular season, win a potential top-25 showdown against the Cougars on Nov. 22, giving BYU what Utah fans hope is a third loss on the season, and drop at least one more game to Baylor (Oct. 25), Arizona (Nov. 15) or TCU (Nov. 29), then the Utes could have a shot at moving up the leaderboard on tiebreakers.

Even then, Utah will have to wait and see how things play out for TCU and Iowa State, two teams that the Utes won't see in the regular season and also have a pair of losses in league play. Houston, which isn't on Utah's docket either, could sustain a second Big 12 loss this upcoming weekend when it takes on Arizona State. If not, the Utes have to hope Houston trips up on West Virginia (Nov. 1), at UCF (Nov. 7), TCU (Nov. 22) or at Baylor (Nov. 29) to finish with at least two losses and thus, create a tiebreaker scenario with Utah.

As for the Sun Devils, another loss to one of West Virginia (Nov. 15), at Colorado (Nov. 22) or Arizona (Nov. 28) would help set up a tiebreaker with the Utes, in addition to preventing other teams like Houston and Iowa State from gaining ground in the league standings.

In short: Utah needs BYU out of the picture, and a tiebreaker scenario that involves a team the Utes have beaten.

Which brings us to Utah's side of the coin...

Utes have to take care of business down the stretch

Watching carnage unfold at the top of the league standings won't help the Utes' Big 12 title aspirations if they don't take care of business in their last five regular season games.

The rest of Utah's schedule is as follows: home against Colorado (Oct. 25), home against Cincinnati (Nov. 1), at Baylor (Nov. 15), home against Kansas State (Nov. 22) and at Kansas (Nov. 28). The Utes have a 16.2% chance of sweeping those five games, according to ESPN FPI. Those might not sound like great odds, but consider, every other Big 12 team has a 5% or worse chance of winning out besides Texas Tech (23.2%).

Running the table is a must for Utah if it's to claim a top two spot in the league standings at the end of the season; three of the five teams left on its schedule also have 2-2 records in Big 12 play. Missing out on any more head-to-head tiebreakers (not to mention, suffering a third loss) would only do more damage to the Utes' résumé.

As for Utah's College Football Playoff hopes...

At this rate, the only way Utah — or any Big 12 team, for that matter — earns a spot in the 12-team playoff is through winning the conference championship game.

Not only did Texas Tech's loss to Arizona State reshuffle the deck; it impacted how the rest of the country perceives the strength of the league.

"You got all of this stuff going on in the Big Ten, you got all of this stuff going on in the SEC. And I know the ACC now is kinda like, 'what do we do now,'" said college football analyst Todd McShay on an episode of his podcast. "And then you look at the Big 12, and it's just not a great conference."

"[The Texas Tech loss] means the Big 12, definitively, is only getting one team in [the College Football Playoff]. It's just gonna be the winner of the conference championship."

It's possible some of the people sitting on the College Football Playoff selection committee share McShay's sentiments regarding the Big 12. If that's the case, then the team that's not standing on the winner's podium, holding the league's championship trophy in Arlington, Texas, after the conference championship game, will go home realizing how close a College Football Playoff berth was within its grasp.

Big 12 standings heading into Week 9

1. BYU (4-0)
2. Cincinnati (4-0)
3. Houston (3-1)
4. Arizona State (3-1)
5. Texas Tech (3-1)
6. Iowa State (2-2)
7. TCU (2-2)
8. Utah (2-2)
9. Baylor (2-2)
10. Kansas (2-2)
11. Kansas State (2-2)
12. Arizona (1-3)
13. UCF (1-3)
14. Colorado (1-3)
15. West Virginia (0-4)
16. Oklahoma State (0-4)